A significant options trade worth $2 billion is placing a bet on Bitcoin, predicting a price rally to between $100,000 and $118,000 by December 2025, but with expectations that it won’t exceed this range. This complex strategy, identified as a “call condor,” involves buying four call options with identical expiry dates but differing strike prices. This setup is generally used when investors foresee a bullish trend while believing the upside is constrained.
Recent market conditions suggest that sentiment has shifted regarding the anticipated year-end “Santa rally,” with analysts indicating that expectations for a euphoric surge have been effectively priced out. Jake Ostrovskis, an OTC trader, commented on the uptick in long call condor trades, emphasizing the need to identify a genuine market bottom. He pointed out that essential indicators, such as a decline in implied volatility (IV), a return to contango, and a neutral skew, will be crucial for gauging when the market can be considered to have reached a low.
Adam Chu, chief researcher at GreeksLive, echoed these sentiments, asserting that bearish sentiment has taken hold—eliminating hopes for Bitcoin to reach new highs in the fourth quarter. He noted that the substantial long call condor orders might-be linked to actions taken by “whales,” or significant market players, as they adjust their positions before monthly expiries.
Despite some stabilization in prices, Sean Dawson from Derive highlighted that the market hasn’t yet met the conditions signaling a bottom. He observed that 30 and 180-day implied volatility is on the rise, suggesting traders are still willing to pay for panic protection. Dawson further pointed out that the current “backwardation” in the volatility term structure indicates a distressed market atmosphere, meaning that short-term volatility is priced higher than long-term, which is atypical.
Looking ahead, Dawson anticipates Bitcoin will remain range-bound within the specified $100,000 to $118,000 corridor for the rest of 2025, with a breakout above $120,000 likely to occur only after the new year.
As of now, Bitcoin’s price stands at approximately $87,400, reflecting a 0.3% decrease over the past 24 hours, according to data from CoinGecko. The combination of market signals and sentiment suggests that professional traders are bracing for ongoing volatility and a cautious recovery trajectory.
