Recent data from CEX.io Research reveals that approximately 47% of Bitcoin holders are currently facing unrealized losses, a situation that encompasses over 30% of Bitcoin owned by long-term investors. This statistic marks the highest level of losses among long-term holders since the beginning of 2023, amounting to around $304 billion worth of Bitcoin that is now “underwater.”
The report highlights a notable trend, suggesting that long-term holders are now selling at their steepest losses in three years. Analysts express concerns over the rapid decline in confidence among investors, indicating that while Bitcoin’s price has shown slight recovery in recent weeks, the percentage of long-term holders in profit has been steadily decreasing.
As of the latest reporting, Bitcoin’s price is approximately $66,567, remaining relatively flat over the past 24 hours. However, it has experienced a decline of about 6% over the past week, partially attributed to rising tensions surrounding a potential escalation of conflict in Iran. This shifting environment has led to increased uncertainty within the Bitcoin market, as indicated by CEX.io’s Bitcoin Impact Index, which now categorizes the market as experiencing “high impact.” This designation reflects significant stress levels among Bitcoin holders and institutional investors.
Historically, discrepancies between price movements and on-chain conviction—such as what is currently observed—have acted as cautionary indicators. Previous instances of this nature occurred in mid-2018 and mid-2022, coinciding with price drops of over 25%. A similar decline now could see Bitcoin fall below the significant threshold of $50,000 for the first time since February 2024, given that it currently stands approximately 47% below its all-time high of $126,080 reached in October.
CEX.io’s analysis likens the present market conditions to late January, which preceded a substantial price drop from mid-$90,000s to low $60,000s in early February. Notably, the report states that unlike earlier sell-off events, current holders are not hastily moving their Bitcoin to exchanges for liquidation, which has helped to prevent further deterioration of the market during its worst moments.
This cautious outlook aligns with recent assessments from VanEck, which noted an “unusually strong demand” for downside protection in Bitcoin. CryptoQuant has previously suggested that the bear market bottom for Bitcoin may be closer to $55,000, while Standard Chartered has projected a price drop to $50,000 before potentially rebounding towards $100,000. As the market navigates these turbulent waters, analysts stress the need for close observation of holder behavior and market dynamics.
