A market technician has identified a potential trajectory for XRP in the upcoming months, speculating that it could reach new heights as historical trends around Bitcoin halvings come into play. Currently, XRP is trading near the $3 mark, facing challenges in establishing a consistent support level. Despite short-term fluctuations, there is a growing optimism regarding its long-term potential.
Market analyst Diana recently shared her insights, suggesting that XRP may experience a significant rally, with expectations of its price peaking above $20 by October 2025. Her analysis draws on previous Bitcoin halving cycles, notably referencing the massive run during 2017.
Diana pointed to the halving event on July 9, 2016, after which Bitcoin soared for over a year, ultimately achieving a peak of over $19,000 on December 18, 2017, precisely 527 days post-halving. In a similar fashion, XRP followed suit, albeit with a slight delay, reaching its high of $3.31 on January 5, 2018—just 18 days after Bitcoin’s peak. This pattern of movement, according to Diana, illustrates how Bitcoin tends to lead the market, with XRP often experiencing a subsequent surge.
However, the cycle observed in 2021 deviated from this established rhythm. After Bitcoin’s halving on May 11, 2020, which concluded with a peak of approximately $69,000 on November 10, 2021, XRP struggled to keep pace. The delays were largely attributed to the SEC lawsuit filed in late 2020, which resulted in several exchanges delisting XRP, thus hindering its growth. Instead of reaching a peak alongside Bitcoin, XRP’s high in April 2021 marked a premature end to its rally, described by Diana as a lost cycle for the cryptocurrency.
The present landscape for XRP appears more favorable. Following a July 2023 judgment that deemed XRP not a security, the weight of uncertainty has significantly lifted. The reopening of trading on U.S. exchanges and Ripple’s ongoing development of products such as RLUSD and new payment corridors further bolster confidence. Additionally, recent filings for Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have emerged, indicating potential institutional interest in the market.
Given these developments and with the next Bitcoin halving expected on April 20, 2024, Diana applied the historical timing model from 2017 to predict Bitcoin’s peak around September 29, 2025. Factoring in XRP’s typical lag of 18 days, she anticipates its possible peak on October 17, 2025. This synchronization could pave the way for a robust breakout for XRP.
Diana elaborated on three potential scenarios for XRP’s future price trajectory. In a conservative outlook, she projects XRP could leverage Bitcoin’s momentum to reach between $5 and $7. In her base case, assuming favorable ETF inflows and a reinforced utility narrative, she predicts a range of $10 to $15. In a more bullish scenario, if significant institutional liquidity enters the market, XRP could exceed the $20 mark.
She emphasized a key distinction between the cycles of 2017 and 2025. The earlier surge primarily relied on retail speculation, whereas the current environment is characterized by greater regulatory clarity, Ripple’s expansion into stablecoin offerings, increased ETF interest, and tangible real-world adoption.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Readers are encouraged to conduct thorough research before making investment decisions, as the perspectives outlined do not reflect any official stance or opinion and are not liable for any financial losses.
