A recent report from Fidelity Digital Assets, authored by research analyst Zack Wainwright, presents an intriguing analysis of Bitcoin’s illiquid supply and its implications for the future of investment in the cryptocurrency. Wainwright highlights two significant factors driving this trend: early adopters who retain their Bitcoin holdings and a growing number of publicly traded companies acquiring large quantities of BTC.
The report suggests this confluence may herald “a new era in Bitcoin’s history,” particularly given that Satoshi Nakamoto’s remaining 1.1 million BTC holdings now surpass the amount yet to be mined. In reflecting on Bitcoin’s early days, where faucets allowed individuals to claim free coins, the author comments on how the narrative is shifting from abundance to scarcity.
While a largely optimistic assessment emerges from the report, a crucial warning exists. The race among companies to amass Bitcoin could eventually lead to volatility if these entities opt to sell portions of their holdings to realize profits. For instance, by June 30, 2025, these companies collectively possessed over $628 billion worth of Bitcoin at a price of $107,700, more than double the value of their holdings from the previous year. This raises an important question: will these holders begin to cash in on their profits? Early indicators of a potential sell-off were observed when 80,000 dormant Bitcoins, untouched for a decade, were sold in July 2025.
The potential for large amounts of previously illiquid Bitcoin to enter the market could unsettle investors. Historical parallels were drawn to Tesla’s past decision to offload a significant portion of its Bitcoin holdings, a move that caused a steep decline in Bitcoin’s value amid speculations of waning confidence in the cryptocurrency.
Despite the concerns of selling pressure, Wainwright maintains a bullish outlook. Fidelity’s projections indicate that Bitcoin ‘whales’—those holding their assets for at least seven years, alongside firms possessing a minimum of 1,000 BTC—are expected to collectively hold more than six million Bitcoins by year’s end. This quantity would represent 28% of Bitcoin’s total supply. With millions of coins already considered lost, the market for daily investors may become even tighter.
The report emphasizes the growing resolution among these long-term holders; it notes that Bitcoin that hasn’t changed hands in seven or more years has continued to become increasingly illiquid. This group has shown a consistent increase in their portion of the total Bitcoin supply since records began in 2016.
Moreover, publicly traded companies have demonstrated a similar determination, with their total holdings increasing steadily since 2020. As of mid-2025, these businesses together possessed over 830,000 BTC, a stark contrast to just over 300,000 BTC held a year prior. Notably, MicroStrategy’s earlier strategy to acquire Bitcoin at lower prices positions it to remain profitable even if Bitcoin’s value declines significantly.
However, concerns arise regarding the timing of these acquisitions, especially given the abrupt increase in purchasing activity over the last year. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price has surged to a new all-time high of $124,000, attributed to increased demand and limited supply. The report hints at potential further developments if Bitcoin sees wider adoption and if the regulatory landscape evolves favorably.
As demand continues to grow, the emphasis on Bitcoin’s scarcity could reshape the market dynamics, but Wainwright aptly reminds readers of the inherent volatility—buyers can quickly shift to sellers, potentially destabilizing the market at any juncture.
