Bitcoin is poised for a potential rally, with analysts predicting a 70% likelihood that the cryptocurrency will reach new all-time highs within the next two weeks. Researcher Axel Adler Jr. indicates that current market conditions are optimal for a price increase, noting that the Short-Term Holder (STH) MVRV Z-Scores for 155-day and 365-day groups are hovering near zero. This suggests that the market is balanced, avoiding both overheating and oversold conditions. Bitcoin is currently trading slightly above its realized price for short-term holders, hinting at a possible consolidation phase lasting one to two weeks before a breakout occurs.
Adler Jr. expressed optimism, declaring, “Uptober incoming,” pointing to historically favorable seasonal trends during this period. Furthermore, derivatives data reveals that Bitcoin futures are consistently trading at a premium compared to spot prices, a scenario that typically correlates with bullish market activity. However, Adler Jr. did caution about minor signs of overheating observed prior to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where slight price increases occurred with low trading volume, indicating potential late-stage positioning by some traders.
Despite these cautionary signs, the overall sentiment appears positive. Adler Jr. maintains that there is a robust 70% chance of either an upward trend or sideways movement in the next fortnight. Institutional interest remains strong, highlighted by the $2.8 billion in net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs since September 9, a development that has further bolstered Bitcoin’s price and technical outlook. This surge in demand suggests that traders are preparing for a significant bullish phase in Bitcoin’s trajectory.
In terms of immediate price action, Bitcoin has witnessed an 8.5% increase this month alone, escalating from $107,000 to approximately $117,800 in anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. However, this increase has also created pockets of internal liquidity, suggesting a potential for a slight pullback before an eventual upward trend. Historical trends for September have typically shown a bearish disposition, contributing further to this outlook.
Nonetheless, Bitcoin’s performance in 2025 has often defied bearish expectations. Historically, the cryptocurrency has bypassed internal liquidity zones, shifting instead between external liquidity levels, represented by swing highs and lows on longer-term charts. A precedent was set in July when Bitcoin surged past $105,000, quickly attaining new highs after confirming a daily break of structure.
Currently, a similar pattern appears to be developing. If Bitcoin can secure a daily close above $117,500, it would signal another break of structure, significantly diminishing the chances of a dip below $114,000. This scenario aligns with Adler Jr.’s forecast for a price reaching new all-time highs within the next two weeks. Although there remains a narrow chance for a retest of the order block levels around $114,000 to $113,000, improving macroeconomic conditions and rising ETF inflows are likely to entice buyers in earlier, thereby constraining downside risks. The interplay between structural liquidity gaps and bullish momentum will be critical in determining whether Bitcoin experiences a brief pause or advances directly toward the $124,000 mark.
This analysis does not constitute investment advice, and it is vital for individuals to conduct thorough research before making any trading decisions.
