A recent analysis of the XRP/BTC market by a pseudonymous market technician known as Dr Cat (@DoctorCatX) suggests that a significant price movement for XRP against Bitcoin may be on the horizon, although it is likely to be delayed until early 2026. The analyst utilizes a two-month (2M) XRP/BTC chart incorporating Ichimoku indicators to illustrate his predictions, indicating that key technical conditions must be met before any substantial upward momentum can commence.
Dr Cat’s analysis emphasizes the importance of the Chikou Span (CS), which is a component of the Ichimoku Cloud that helps determine market trends. According to him, the CS must clear above historical price candles and the Tenkan-sen (the conversion line) to signify a transition from equilibrium to a trending market. He anticipates that this critical clearance will happen around January or February 2026, with a potential continuation into March.
The analyst highlights that XRP/BTC must maintain support around approximately 2,442 sats (0.00002442 BTC) to allow the Chikou Span to be positioned favorably for a breakout. If this level is defended successfully, Dr Cat believes the market could target a significant resistance zone between 7,000 and 12,000 sats as the next major trajectory for XRP in 2026.
While the long-term outlook appears promising, Dr Cat warns of potential near-term risks on the weekly Ichimoku chart. He notes the possibility of a bearish kumo twist—an event where Senkou Span A crosses below Senkou Span B—if the market does not achieve a new yearly high by late 2025. Such a twist could indicate a medium-term loss of momentum, necessitating reevaluation of market conditions as 2025 draws to a close.
The real-world implications of these price targets are contingent upon Bitcoin’s value, given that the conversion rate for XRP will fluctuate based on BTC’s movements. Currently, with Bitcoin priced around $7.80, Dr Cat provides a framework for understanding how the anticipated price levels could translate into dollar terms.
The discussion also touches upon the broader context of the XRP/BTC market, which has been trading within a relatively wide range since early 2024, following a prolonged downtrend from its peak in 2021. The pivotal support at 2,442 sats is seen as crucial for avoiding excessive volatility on higher time frames.
In summary, the analyst’s outlook indicates that any substantial outperformance of XRP against Bitcoin is unlikely to occur until 2026, pending favorable conditions in the market and the fulfillment of critical technical indicators. Until then, ongoing monitoring of the weekly Ichimoku cloud and overall market dynamics will be essential in determining the viability of these forecasts. As of the latest update, XRP is trading at $3.119.
