BlackRock, a major player in the financial sector, has yet to submit an application for an XRP-spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) despite the recent wave of optimism surrounding cryptocurrency investments. This absence raises questions about the potential influence a BlackRock iShares XRP Trust could have in shaping the XRP-spot ETF market and its overall success.
The iShares Bitcoin Trust and iShares Ethereum Trust have seen impressive net inflows of $60.4 billion and $13.3 billion, respectively, since their launches. In comparison, Fidelity’s Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, which are the second largest by inflows, have garnered $12.8 billion and $2.9 billion respectively. The stark difference in numbers highlights how critical BlackRock could be in terms of institutional backing for XRP.
Recent developments could suggest that a BlackRock filing is on the horizon. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved rule changes from prominent exchanges including Cboe, Nasdaq, and NYSE, allowing issuers to list and trade cryptocurrency spot ETFs under the Generic Listing Standards for Commodity-Based Trust shares. This approval could eliminate the need for SEC reviews, thus streamlining the process for crypto-spot ETFs.
In addition, BlackRock had previously met with the SEC Crypto Task Force to discuss standards for ETF approvals, potentially setting the stage for an iShares XRP Trust listing. However, it appears that BlackRock might be weighing the current demand environment before proceeding with any filing.
Meanwhile, XRP’s performance has remained tightly correlated with Bitcoin. Despite a surge in ETF interest, XRP mirrored Bitcoin’s decline on September 19, with pro-crypto lawyer Bill Morgan attributing this downward trend to the overarching influence of Bitcoin price actions. XRP experienced a 2.67% drop on that day, closing at $2.9926, which placed it just below the psychologically significant $3 level. Traders are particularly focused on key support and resistance levels, with support marks identified at $2.8 and $2.5, and resistance levels at $3, $3.2, and $3.66—the latter being its all-time high.
Looking ahead, several factors could influence XRP’s price action. Institutional inflows from investment products like BITW, GDLC, and XRPR, regulatory developments surrounding XRP-spot ETFs, and actions from blue-chip companies regarding XRP as a treasury reserve asset could all play critical roles. Regulatory milestones, such as Ripple’s application for a U.S.-chartered bank license and developments related to the Market Structure Bill, are also anticipated to have significant impacts.
Considering potential scenarios, the outlook for XRP can swing either way. A bearish scenario might unfold if reports indicate weak inflows for investment products, if the SEC chooses to reject XRP-spot ETF applications, or if legislative hurdles arise that stifle supportive crypto regulations. Such events could lead XRP toward the $2.8 mark, with a risk of testing $2.5 as the next support level.
Conversely, a bullish scenario could hinge on robust demand reflected in the aforementioned investment products, alongside a proactive stance from BlackRock regarding an iShares XRP Trust application. If blue-chip companies start adopting XRP as a treasury reserve asset and Ripple successfully secures its bank license, the conditions could become favorable for XRP to rise above $3. Sustained momentum above this threshold might open pathways to new price targets, including $3.2 and potentially beyond to test its previous high of $3.66 on platforms like Binance.
