The total illiquid Bitcoin supply has surged to a record high, signaling a bullish sentiment for the leading cryptocurrency. Recent data from Glassnode reveals that Bitcoin’s illiquid supply has reached an astonishing 14.3 million BTC, which constitutes over 72% of its circulating supply. This significant portion of Bitcoin is held by long-term holders (LTHs), many of whom have not moved their assets in over seven years, demonstrating a robust conviction in the cryptocurrency.
The dominance of long-term holders in Bitcoin’s supply is generally seen as a positive indicator, as it diminishes the potential selling pressure that could negatively impact the coin’s value. This phenomenon can often lead to a supply shock, where rising demand considerably outstrips available supply.
Fidelity Investments, a notable asset manager, has acknowledged that the recent surge in demand for BTC, along with its fixed supply and diminishing issuance schedule, likely contributed to Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs (ATH) above $124,000. The firm projects that this upward trajectory could persist in the coming years.
Fidelity identifies two main groups contributing to Bitcoin’s illiquid supply. The first includes BTC that has remained unmovable for seven or more years, while the second consists of public companies holding a minimum of 1,000 BTC. A prime example is Michael Saylor’s Strategy, which currently possesses 638,985 BTC—accounting for over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply—and has not sold any coins since its acquisition began in 2020.
Looking ahead, Fidelity predicts that this combined group could control over six million Bitcoin by 2025, representing more than 28% of Bitcoin’s capped supply of 21 million. The firm points out that the illiquid supply has historically only decreased quarter-over-quarter on one occasion.
As Bitcoin’s scarcity continues to grow, it may become a key focus for investors, especially if more entities adopt long-term holding strategies. The potential for a significant rise in illiquid supply could be catalyzed by increasing nation-state adoption and an evolving regulatory landscape. Certain countries, including the United States, are exploring the establishment of Strategic Bitcoin Reserves, which could trigger a substantial supply shock.
However, Fidelity also cautions that there exists a possibility for large segments of Bitcoin’s illiquid supply to be transferred. Long-term holders and corporations could choose to realize gains, particularly in response to notable price increases, exemplified by the sale of 80,000 ancient BTC in July 2025—an early sign of potential market capitulation.
As of the latest updates, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $115,600, reflecting a decline in the last 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap data.
