Crypto enthusiasts are closely watching the market as the prospect of an October rally hangs in the balance. Despite a recent downturn on Monday, historical data suggests that October has typically been a bullish month for Bitcoin (BTC). Since 2013, Bitcoin has recorded gains in October 10 out of the 12 years, leading many to refer to it as “Uptober.” Notably, Bitcoin has not experienced a loss in October since 2018, when it fell 3.8%. In previous bull markets, such as 2017 and 2021, BTC saw substantial gains of 48% and 40%, respectively. If a similar surge occurs this year, estimates indicate that Bitcoin could reach around $165,000 by the end of the month.
Supporting the optimistic outlook, Kyle Chassé, a prominent Bitcoin supporter, noted a rising probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, with current CME futures predictions placing the likelihood at a striking 92%. Chassé emphasized that with easing monetary policy seeming imminent, liquidity is set to flow back into the market—an essential factor for driving up Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Conversely, analyst “Sykodelic” suggested that the market might dip further before rallying in October. They highlighted a target price of $112,500 as a crucial point, where bearish sentiments from those anticipating rate cuts could arise before the market begins to ascend toward new highs and a euphoric phase.
Adding to the positive sentiment, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, stated that cryptocurrencies would enter an “up only mode” once the US Treasury achieves its goal of filling the Treasury General Account, particularly after surpassing $850 billion earlier this month. He concluded that once this liquidity drain is complete, the upward trend could continue.
However, not all analysts are convinced of a robust October performance. Augustine Fan, the head of insights at SignalPlus, warned that any potential BTC rallies might be subdued. He pointed to low implied volatility and diminishing inflow momentum, alongside profit-takers ready to cap any upward movements. Fan suggested that long-term investors might need to exercise patience before anticipating record highs.
Jeff Mei, Chief Operating Officer at BTSE, also expressed skepticism about the traditional Uptober pattern repeating this year, citing ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and the lack of a market decline in September. He acknowledged that aggressive Federal Reserve measures could alter the outlook.
The current state of the crypto market reflected a bearish tone on Monday, with total capitalization dropping by $80 billion. Bitcoin fell to a twelve-day low of $114,270, while Ether (ETH) also experienced a decline, dropping over 4% to fall below $4,300—the lowest point it’s seen in two weeks. As the market continues to evolve, traders remain cautious and observant, weighing the potential for both upward movements and continued volatility.
