Global asset manager VanEck has expressed renewed optimism regarding Bitcoin’s future, predicting that the cryptocurrency could achieve a new all-time high between late 2025 and 2026. This expectation is based on the firm’s conceptualization of Bitcoin as “digital gold,” a position bolstered by the increasing scarcity of the asset and its growing institutional adoption.
During an interview on The Paul Barron Show, Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research and Portfolio Manager at VanEck, reaffirmed the validity of the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle. He indicated that the cryptocurrency market still possesses considerable growth potential as it transitions into the next year.
In a recent blog post, VanEck did not specify an explicit price target but indicated that historical trends suggest Bitcoin often experiences rallies that peak 12 to 18 months following its halving events. This historical pattern positions late 2025 through 2026 as a promising timeframe for significant price increases. However, the firm also cautioned investors, emphasizing that while these scenarios are informed by historical data, actual future performance may differ significantly.
A crucial factor in this optimistic outlook is Bitcoin’s capped supply of 21 million coins. VanEck highlighted the significance of halving events—periodic reductions in the block rewards given to miners, occurring approximately every four years—which serve to slow the issuance of new coins. The firm noted that the next halving, scheduled for April 2024, has historically been associated with “explosive returns,” suggesting that it could set the stage for Bitcoin’s price surge.
The firm also pointed to a marked increase in institutional adoption, indicating that Bitcoin has moved beyond niche online communities and is now held by Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), corporations, and even some nation-states, with estimated holdings reaching $196 billion by mid-2025. VanEck emphasized that Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a hedge against inflation and a non-correlated asset in institutional portfolios.
In addition to Bitcoin’s scarcity and institutional uptake, VanEck noted the potential of innovations such as Layer 2 scaling solutions—the Lightning Network and the upcoming RGB protocol. These advancements may expand Bitcoin’s use cases into tokenized assets, unlocking new opportunities for developers and fostering growth within the cryptocurrency ecosystem.
Additionally, VanEck highlighted Bitcoin’s potential as an inflation hedge amidst global monetary expansion and rising inflation pressures, especially in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike fiat currencies, Bitcoin’s fixed supply and decentralized nature make it less susceptible to the erosion of purchasing power, positioning it as an appealing option for investors concerned about inflationary impacts on their portfolios.
Despite its historical volatility, Bitcoin has outperformed other asset classes in eight of the past eleven years, with a staggering ten-year return of 35,225% as of June 2025, according to VanEck’s analysis.
