On September 23, Arthur Hayes addressed the KBW 2025 Summit in Korea, delivering a keynote speech that examined the potential for “runaway money printing” in the United States. Hayes provided an in-depth analysis of this phenomenon’s historical precedents, political influences, and the mechanisms that could bring it to fruition. He posited that developments in monetary policy could significantly impact cryptocurrency investments, encouraging attendees to pay close attention to these trends.
Hayes drew a parallel between the dramatic increase in Bitcoin prices during the pandemic and the corresponding credit expansion within the economy. He suggested that by 2028, the price of Bitcoin could soar to around $3.4 million, indicating a shift towards a million-dollar valuation was on the horizon.
In his presentation, Hayes discussed how the current trajectory towards rampant money printing began under the Trump administration. He pointed to the reduced permanent interest rates established by the Federal Reserve and emphasized the shifting narrative in mainstream financial media, particularly criticisms directed at former President Trump and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
To frame his argument, Hayes traced back to the U.S. involvement in World War II to illustrate historical efforts in money printing. He explained how the Federal Reserve collaborated with the Treasury to suppress bond market interest rates to facilitate government borrowing aimed at financing the war. This historical context provided a backdrop for understanding current economic strategies, likening them to past actions that produced similar fiscal conditions.
He used a current yield curve chart to emphasize the stark contrast with historical benchmarks. According to Hayes, Trump’s objective appears to be creating a flatter yield curve that would benefit a broader range of economic actors, particularly small and medium enterprises (SMEs). He expressed skepticism but confidence that substantial changes in monetary policy could ultimately lead to significant price increases for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Hayes also delved into the technicalities of yield curve control, highlighting the Federal Reserve’s mandate to maintain moderate interest rates, which he interpreted as a license to print money. He emphasized the urgency of fiscal spending and credit creation in light of America’s diminished industrial base and questionable military capabilities.
His remarks included a detailed examination of the Treasury bill market, outlining how the Federal Reserve could manipulate interest rates to control credit availability. This aspect of Hayes’s presentation scrutinized both the immediate and long-term implications of monetary policy, particularly for smaller banks reliant on the ability to lend at favorable rates.
The keynote situated Trump’s administration’s strategies within the broader historical context of economic policy, speculating on the mechanics of how control of the Federal Reserve could enable a return to a more aggressive quantitative easing regime. Hayes noted the role of key Senate confirmations in shaping the Fed, emphasizing that political dynamics could dramatically impact economic outcomes.
While acknowledging skepticism regarding cryptocurrency reaching exorbitant values, Hayes argued that the interplay between massive government debt issuance and monetary policy could create conditions for unprecedented price increases. He concluded that the intertwining of fiscal strategies and cryptocurrency dynamics deserved greater attention from investors as the economic landscape evolves.
Hayes left his audience with a provocative outlook on how these economic transformations could reshape not just financial markets but the foundational aspects of the U.S. economy, drawing connections between historical precedents and present-day monetary theories.
