Crypto analyst Kevin, known as Kev Capital TA, addressed his audience late on September 25, discussing Bitcoin’s most recent pullback and its implications for the cryptocurrency market. Kevin indicated that Bitcoin’s decline is following a familiar seasonal and structural pattern. He emphasized that the market’s next significant movement hinges on a well-defined support range he identifies between $107,000 and $98,000. “Hold $107k to $98K,” he stated, referring to this zone as crucial for the upcoming phase of the bull cycle.
As Bitcoin’s price dipped to $108,651, Kevin pointed out that the current downturn should not come as a surprise to seasoned traders. He has been cautioning about potential bearish movements since early August when he noted weekly bearish divergences across not just Bitcoin but also Ethereum and the broader altcoin market. He highlighted that many traders mistakenly view symmetrical triangle patterns as indicators of continued upward trends; however, Kevin argued that such breakouts seldom happen in the crypto market.
His analysis reveals a concerning deterioration in momentum on Bitcoin’s weekly chart, where rising price highs are juxtaposed against declining momentum indicators. He also noted a “triple top” formation on Total2, which represents the overall altcoin market capitalization, around the resistance level of approximately $1.71 to $1.74 trillion, with significant bearish trends on the weekly RSI and MACD indicators. Kevin commented that Q3 has historically been a sluggish quarter for cryptocurrencies, with the months of August and September often labeled as particularly unkind.
In his tactical commentary, Kevin pointed to a liquidity “heat map” indicating Bitcoin’s support near $106.8K, alongside the 21-week EMA, which he described as the significant support band of the bull market near $109.2K. He expressed that it would be essential for Bitcoin to maintain above $106.8K to retain bullish potential. Any drop into this range could serve as a liquidity swipe but should ideally lead to a bounce. He emphasized the importance of the $98K mark as a critical support level that should not break decisively.
Kevin’s analysis also encompasses macroeconomic factors, tying them closely to the cycles of the cryptocurrency market. He recalled how past major drawdowns have been triggered by fundamental economic catalysts, such as inflation spikes or significant market events like the FTX collapse. Currently, he believes there are no clear macro triggers signaling a cycle-ending event. With inflation figures appearing volatile yet manageable, and expectations of potential easing from the Federal Reserve heading into year-end, Kevin sees seasonality trends favoring Q4 positively for Bitcoin.
He flagged crucial data releases in October, such as core PCE and CPI, as pivotal in determining market direction. Should Bitcoin manage to hold its key support through mid-October and favorable macroeconomic data emerge, Kevin suggested a higher probability of an upward movement, aligning with typical Q4 performance cycles.
Positing a notable volatility shift on the horizon, he advised closely watching Bitcoin’s volatility indicators, particularly noting the record-low readings on the weekly Bollinger Band Width, which have historically preceded substantial price movements. He indicated the potential for Bitcoin to test the lower weekly band near $101K, although he reiterated that the vital $107K to $98K support band remains essential for a potential rebound.
On the topic of market leadership, Kevin identified key resistance levels for Bitcoin’s dominance, citing percentages of 59.0% and 60.28%, which, if reclaimed, could lead to a Bitcoin-led market phase. Until these signals shift, he recommended focusing less on altcoins and maintaining a disciplined trading strategy that emphasizes patience, risk management, and profit-taking during resistance.
In conclusion, Kevin underscored the need for traders to respect the seasonal market dynamics and pay attention to inter-market signals as they position themselves for future movements. He urged viewers to trust in the analysis, advising, “Being right is the best pat on the back you can get,” indicating that clarity and discipline are vital in navigating this market landscape. As of the latest update, Bitcoin was priced at $109,607.
