XRP continues to hover above a crucial price level in September, fuelling optimism for a potential rebound as October approaches. The cryptocurrency traded at approximately $2.77 during the month’s opening after a notable 14% decline over the previous two weeks. Holding this position is vital for maintaining hopes of a recovery.
Analysts indicate that XRP must remain above the critical support level of $2.75, which aligns with the lower boundary of a symmetrical triangle formation on its daily chart. Successfully holding this level could pave the way for a breakout above the descending trendline, particularly the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at $2.86. If this happens, XRP may see a bullish target of $3.62.
Data from Glassnode shows a significant cluster of demand around the $2.75 mark, where approximately 1.58 billion XRP were previously acquired. This reinforces the importance of maintaining support at this level. However, the presence of a substantial supply wall near $2.81—coinciding with the 100-day SMA—serves as a potential hurdle for any recovery efforts in the immediate future.
Should XRP fall below $2.75, analysts warn of a possible sell-off towards a bearish target of $2.00. The market sentiment is tentatively optimistic, with market analyst Hardy asserting that XRP is in a solid bullish consolidation phase, provided it holds within the $2.72-$2.75 range. Fellow analyst XForceGlobal echoes this sentiment, suggesting that further consolidation around the $2.75 mark may lead to a stronger breakout, with targets of $20 to $30 potentially still in play.
Historically, October has not been kind to XRP, as the cryptocurrency has closed in the red in seven of the past twelve years, averaging a return of approximately -4.58%. Despite this, the preceding months often lead to a significant uptick in prices, particularly in November, which has been noted as a robust month for XRP. Data shows that the period between October and December has yielded an average gain of 51% in past years.
In recent years, XRP has experienced substantial Q4 rallies, with a staggering 240% gain in Q4 2024 and 20% in Q4 2023. A remarkable 1,064% surge in the same quarter back in 2017 underlines the volatility and potential rewards associated with XRP during this time. Even in downturn years such as 2018 and 2022, seen as outliers, the last quarter has consistently produced significant price movements.
The anticipation surrounding upcoming Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) decisions may provide additional momentum for XRP. With looming deadlines set for mid-October—including Franklin Templeton’s decision on November 14 and Grayscale’s on October 18—the spotlight on XRP could invigorate its market position. Analysts predict that streamlined SEC standards and clarification following the Ripple lawsuit could position approval odds at 100% by the end of the year, unlocking an influx of $4 to $8 billion in potential investments.
However, market participants caution that this expected positivity may already be factored into current prices, posing a risk of a “sell the news” scenario once approvals are announced.
As the month unfolds, XRP’s performance will be closely watched, with traders attentively monitoring price levels and responding to market cues that may influence investment strategies in this ever-evolving crypto landscape.
