In a surprising turn of events, September 2025 has been notably favorable for cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin. While Bitcoin (BTC USD) experienced a rise during the first weeks of the month, a significant decline in the final week did not overshadow its overall gains. This resilience, bolstered by positive news surrounding Bitcoin and a robust buyer presence, has set a foundation for the cryptocurrency to potentially exceed $125,000 in the upcoming fourth quarter of 2025.
Currently, Bitcoin remains stable above $116,000, having managed to recover from a downturn on September 25. Although this upward movement is occurring with relatively low trading volume, it has nonetheless sparked optimism in the crypto market, rejuvenating interest in several promising cryptocurrencies. Technical analysis suggests that a closing price above $118,000 could trigger a surge toward reaching all-time highs.
According to data from Coinglass, trader sentiment is predominantly optimistic. The current long/short ratio among leading trader positions stands at 1.5, although many top accounts continue to maintain a bearish stance, reflected in a ratio of just 0.98. This bearish sentiment is also prevalent on exchanges such as OKX. Despite mixed inflows to spot exchanges, there has been a noticeable increase in purchases over the past eight hours.
Looking ahead, the mixed performance of Bitcoin throughout September could indicate a bullish trajectory for the cryptocurrency and its traders. Historically, Bitcoin has struggled to close September in positive territory, having only achieved this in four out of fifteen occasions since mainstream trading began. The months of September 2013, 2017, 2019, and 2023 were notable exceptions, often driven by unique catalysts such as early adoption spikes or excitement surrounding exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Dubbed “Rektember” by some, the trend of September being a challenging month for Bitcoin has shifted, as the cryptocurrency posted a modest +5% gain last month. This uptick may bode well for the final quarter of the year; historically, Bitcoin experiences a significant rally following a positive September, often achieving gains of over +50% in Q4. October alone is typically associated with at least +25% gains, with November and December further enhancing upward momentum.
Several factors indicate this pattern may hold true again. Between 2020 and 2022, regulatory uncertainties and the SEC’s refusal to approve spot Bitcoin ETFs were significant roadblocks. However, the landscape shifted in 2024 when the SEC approved the first batch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, leading to substantial institutional purchases. Data from SoSoValue reveals that U.S. institutions have acquired over $150 billion in these ETF shares, with an impressive $429 million purchased on September 30, rekindling demand and reinforcing Bitcoin’s legitimacy.
On another front, major firms are increasingly integrating Bitcoin into their treasuries. Tether recently announced its acquisition of 8,888 BTC in the third quarter of 2025, amassing a total investment of $1 billion after purchasing at an average price of $112,500 per coin. This follows a similar purchase earlier in the year, bringing Tether’s total Bitcoin holdings to over 87,000 BTC. The firm now allocates up to 15% of its quarterly profits to Bitcoin, viewing it as a hedge against inflation while diversifying its reserves across various assets.
As the market anticipates further movements in the coming weeks, analysts are closely monitoring Bitcoin’s trajectory and the broader implications for the cryptocurrency landscape. With Bitcoin’s price resilience and institutional backing, a significant rally in Q4 2025 seems increasingly plausible.
