Bitcoin’s cyclical nature continues to be a topic of intense discussion among industry experts, even as its four-year cycle faces scrutiny. Saad Ahmed, the head of the APAC region for crypto exchange Gemini, expressed optimism about the persistence of some form of a cyclical pattern in the market. Speaking during an interview at Token2049 in Singapore, he explained that the cyclical fluctuations are driven by human emotions, with periods of excitement leading to overextensions followed by crashes and corrections to an equilibrium.
Ahmed highlighted that the increasing involvement of institutional players in the crypto realm could potentially moderate some of the market’s notorious volatility. He emphasized that while some fluctuations might lessen, cycles would remain a feature of the market landscape due to their roots in human behavior.
The discourse surrounding Bitcoin’s four-year cycle has been particularly lively recently. Crypto analytics firm Glassnode noted that Bitcoin’s latest market trends might still be aligned with its historical halving cycle, a key event that typically impacts its price dynamics. This has led analysts to speculate on the timing of potential peak prices.
One such analyst, Rekt Capital, indicated that if Bitcoin continues to follow patterns observed in previous cycles, October could mark a significant peak—around 550 days following the April 2024 halving. He noted that the timeframe for substantial price increases is limited, indicating a sense of urgency for investors.
In a recent surge, Bitcoin’s price jumped 11.5% within the past week, reaching $123,850, which brings it close to its all-time high of $124,100 recorded on August 14. This uptick adds an interesting layer to the ongoing speculation about the timing and scope of potential price movements.
Contrasting opinions have emerged, particularly from figures like Matt Hougan of Bitwise, who stated that he does not foresee Bitcoin adhering strictly to its historical cycles. Hoogan suggested that the year 2026 could be significantly positive for Bitcoin, implying a favorable market climate ahead.
Adding to the optimism, October 1 marked the beginning of the fourth quarter, which has historically been Bitcoin’s strongest quarter since 2013, with a remarkable average return of 79.39%, according to data from CoinGlass. As the market shifts into this pivotal period, the attention of many investors and analysts remains keenly focused on Bitcoin’s price trajectory and the broader implications for the cryptocurrency market.
