Bitcoin has been exhibiting consolidation within a clearly defined range, with support and resistance levels dictated by its 100 and 200-day moving averages. Recently, the asset has shown signs of recovery towards the upper boundary of this range, indicating a potential resurgence in market strength. Analysts suggest that while continued consolidation is probable, a legitimate breakout could pave the way for a sustained directional move.
On the daily chart, Bitcoin remains within a crucial trading range, where the 200-day moving average is positioned near $109,000, providing robust support. Meanwhile, the 100-day moving average, situated around $115,000, serves as immediate resistance. The latest rebound from the $108,000 demand zone has pushed Bitcoin’s price towards this upper boundary. The formation of recovery candles exhibits a constructive market environment, but the $115,000–$116,000 area, overlapping with an institutional supply zone, poses the first significant test for any potential bullish continuation. A decisive close above this resistance level could open the door for a retest of the $120,000–$122,000 liquidity pocket, and possibly a return to the all-time high around $126,000.
On the contrary, should the price fail to break through the 100-day moving average, it could trigger a pullback toward the $108,000 accumulation zone, which remains a high-liquidity demand base and the foundation of recent rebounds.
Examining the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin is currently trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern after a notable recovery from the $102,000–$104,000 institutional demand zone. This formation suggests a period of compressed volatility, usually heralding a strong breakout. The asset is currently testing the upper trendline of this triangle; a successful breach could signify a shift to bullish momentum, aiming for the $120,000–$122,000 liquidity zone. However, if Bitcoin fails to hold above this resistance, a formation of a lower high could lead to renewed downside pressures, potentially drawing the price back to the $108,000 support for a revisit.
Momentum indicators suggest constructive yet fragile conditions, hinting that the market is approaching a pivotal decision phase characterized by imminent volatility expansion.
From an on-chain analysis perspective, the realized price of mid-term holders—those who have held their assets for 3 to 6 months—has proven to be a significant market pivot, historically serving as both a support and resistance level during crucial turning points. This metric reflects the average acquisition cost of coins held by this group, providing insight into prevailing market sentiment.
With Bitcoin’s rebound from $102,000 lifting prices just above the $109,000 realized price, mid-term holders are now back in slight profit. This situation typically alleviates short-term selling pressure and indicates a strengthening conviction among market participants. The $114,000 region emerges as a pivotal threshold; sustaining above this level could bolster confidence among these holders, potentially triggering a new bullish phase towards fresh all-time highs. Conversely, failing to maintain this level could shift sentiment towards caution, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable to deeper corrective moves within its current trading range.
As market dynamics continue to unfold, participants are advised to stay vigilant, conducting thorough research before making any investment decisions.
