In a surprising turn of events, Bitcoin experienced a price decline following recent interest rate cuts announced by the Federal Reserve. While many market participants expected a surge, Bitcoin’s trading took a different path. Market analyst Crypto Birb pointed out ten key indicators that suggest the leading cryptocurrency might be on the verge of a significant upward movement.
As of the analyst’s update, Bitcoin was trading around $112,000. He noted that with the growing interest in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and a calming fear in the market, Bitcoin seems to be consolidating ahead of a potential breakout. Current prices are hovering above vital moving averages, including the 50-week simple moving average (SMA) at $102,934 and the 200-week SMA at $54,756. Interestingly, Bitcoin is also showing independence from traditional equity market trends, with a negligible negative correlation of -0.02 with the S&P 500.
On a daily chart analysis, Bitcoin finds support at the 200-day SMA located at $109,267 and a crucial trend line at $113,100. The relative strength index (RSI) currently sits neutral at 50, while the average true range (ATR) has decreased to 3,495, indicative of a more settled market condition. Although the market shows balanced sentiments at present, it has not yet shifted into a bullish mode. Real-time indicators suggest a bearish tone, with a stop-loss placed at $115,623, while higher timeframe models maintain a bullish outlook with a stop at $114,601.
Bitcoin’s trading range is established between $110,000 and $117,800, and the current compression indicates a potential equilibrium phase. Market analysts are closely watching for a significant movement once this range gets disrupted.
Assessing market sentiment, the Fear & Greed Index registers at 51, reflecting neutrality. Crypto Birb emphasizes that the recent emotional reset following spikes in fear may create a more stable environment for price movements. Additionally, with a 50-day volatility measure at 3,080 and an ATR at 3,495, the market appears less volatile, suggesting that traders are regrouping their positions rather than exiting.
On the mining front, the current economic situation favors miners, with costs estimated at $106,400 and a profitability ratio of 0.94. This indicates that miners are moderately profitable, alleviating concerns about forced selling, while network fundamentals remain solid.
In terms of historical performance, October has seen a modest decline of 0.53%, which is a notable improvement when compared to the typical average drop of 19.78% for this month. This development indicates a healthy reset amid a generally robust seasonal trend.
Looking ahead, the fourth quarter historically has been advantageous for Bitcoin, with an average gain of over 51% observed across the past 15 years, featuring nine winning seasons. If the current market structure persists, Q4 might continue to function as a probable accumulation zone.
In light of Ethereum ETF activity, there is a quiet optimism within the altcoin space, with spot ETF volumes reaching $147 million and substantial net inflows of $133.9 million. The total assets under management have climbed to $24.88 billion, signifying increased liquidity in altcoins as they align with ongoing Bitcoin capital flows, suggesting broader market rotation.
As the market stands, Bitcoin’s price has retracted to around $110,439, but it remains within its established consolidation range, hinting at the potential for an emerging uptrend in the near future.
