Bitcoin is currently at a pivotal juncture, with analysts closely monitoring its price movements to determine its potential trajectory. Veteran trader Josh Olszewicz, known as CarpeNoctom, emphasizes that Bitcoin’s price dynamics could dictate whether it reaches a new all-time high or experiences a significant decline into the $80,000 range.
Olszewicz highlights two critical technical structures influencing Bitcoin’s performance. On a 6-hour chart, Bitcoin has been contained within a broadening “megaphone” pattern since July. This pattern is characterized by rising resistance lines and declining support lines. The upper resistance range is projected between $126,000 to $128,000, while the lower support level is in the vicinity of $105,400 to $103,800.
Earlier in October, Bitcoin briefly surged past $126,000 before experiencing a sharp sell-off that brought it below the $106,000 level, peaking at approximately $102,000. After this downturn, attempts to regain the previous range struggled, stalling under the horizontal resistance of $116,000 to $117,000. Olszewicz notes a potential short-term bounce from just below $111,000 back towards the $116,000 area. However, this suggests more of a relief rally rather than a solid bullish signal. For a genuine bullish movement towards the upper resistance, reclaiming the $116,000 to $117,000 zone is essential, with observers looking for a possible rally toward $128,000 and the potential for a new all-time high.
Conversely, Olszewicz also points to a more concerning bearish scenario on a 1-day timeframe, where he identifies a head-and-shoulders pattern with a rising neckline. In this case, the left shoulder formed around $118,000, the head peaked near $126,200, and the right shoulder struggled around $116,000. The neckline support currently sits between $105,000 and $106,000, with a crucial breakdown level identified at $107,316.81. A decisive move below this neckline could trigger a standard measured move to the downside, forecasting targets of approximately $93,963.81 and $87,652.27.
Resistance levels remain noteworthy as well, with the 0.5 retracement level marked at $115,486 and the previous swing high at $124,477. This structure places Bitcoin between resistance in the $116,000 region and support around $105,000 to $106,000. Olszewicz suggests that while bulls may be attempting to form a complex inverse head-and-shoulders pattern within the megaphone, the prevailing head-and-shoulders formation presents a concerning outlook. A definitive breach of the neckline could cement this bearish perspective and bring the lower targets into play.
As of the latest update, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $110,096, leaving investors and traders keenly watching the market for further developments.
