Bitcoin’s historical performance in October took a surprising turn this year, as the cryptocurrency closed the month with a loss for the first time in seven years. The month began with the typical bullish momentum associated with October, but this shifted abruptly on October 10, coinciding with comments from US President Donald Trump about imposing new trade tariffs on China. Although the US and China have since reached a temporary truce, this has not translated into a recovery for the cryptocurrency market.
Recent on-chain data indicates that US investors remain pessimistic about Bitcoin and the broader digital asset market. Notably, the Coinbase Premium Gap—a metric that measures the price difference between Bitcoin on the Coinbase exchange (USD pair) and the Binance exchange (USDT pair)—has shown significant signs of weakness. Crypto analyst Maartunn pointed out, via a November 1st post on social media platform X, that this gap has entered what he described as “deep red territory.”
When the Coinbase Premium Gap is positive, it typically suggests high demand for Bitcoin among US investors. Conversely, a negative gap indicates increased selling pressure. Currently, this metric has plummeted to around -$80, signaling substantial selling activity from institutional investors in the United States. Consequently, this diminished demand is reflected in the disappointing performance of US-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which saw net outflows exceeding $191 million on the previous Friday alone. This marked the third consecutive day of negative outflows, with withdrawals of nearly $500 million recorded on both Wednesday and Thursday.
Historically, a negative Coinbase Premium Gap has been associated with sluggish or declining Bitcoin prices. Given the substantial selling pressure from significant US investors, the prospects for a robust recovery in the Bitcoin market appear dim in the short term.
At present, Bitcoin’s price stands just above $110,200, marking only a modest 0.9% increase within the last 24 hours. Over the past week, the flagship cryptocurrency has witnessed a decline of precisely 1%, reflecting the ongoing challenges facing the market.
