JPMorgan analysts have expressed optimism about Bitcoin’s trajectory, projecting that the cryptocurrency could rise to approximately $170,000 within the next six to twelve months. This prediction comes as recent analyses suggest that the deleveraging phase of perpetual futures has likely concluded, coupled with an improved volatility ratio in relation to gold. As of now, Bitcoin trades around $101,000, reflecting a 1.6% decline in the past 24 hours.
In a report released recently, strategists from JPMorgan, including Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, highlighted that the crypto markets have recently experienced a substantial correction of nearly 20% from their peak values. This downturn followed record liquidations in perpetual futures on October 10, marking the largest in crypto history. Following this, there were further minor liquidations on November 3 triggered by the $128 million exploit of the decentralized finance platform Balancer.
The analysts emphasized that the open interest ratio in Bitcoin perpetual futures relative to its market capitalization has dropped from above-average levels back to historical norms fairly rapidly. This trend was also noted in Ethereum, albeit less significantly. They posited that the stabilization seen recently indicates that the worst of the deleveraging is behind us, emphasizing the importance of perpetual futures as crucial indicators of market health over traditional futures or ETF flows.
Furthermore, the recent rise in gold volatility has reportedly enhanced Bitcoin’s attractiveness as a risk-adjusted investment. The ratio of Bitcoin-to-gold volatility has dropped below 2.0, suggesting that Bitcoin currently requires approximately 1.8 times more risk capital than gold. Based on this analysis, the current market cap of Bitcoin, standing at roughly $2.1 trillion, would need to increase by nearly 67% to align with the $6.2 trillion in private-sector gold investments. This leads to the theoretical price target of around $170,000 for Bitcoin, indicating substantial upside potential in the short to medium term.
JPMorgan’s projections align with their previous bullish forecasts, which have estimated possible Bitcoin prices of $165,000 by year-end and $126,000 earlier in the year, a level that Bitcoin briefly surpassed when it hit an all-time high of over $126,200 on October 6.
In addition to market insights from JPMorgan, significant signals of growing institutional adoption have emerged. Rick Wurster, the CEO of Charles Schwab, announced that the $11.6 trillion financial services firm intends to offer Bitcoin trading by the first half of 2026. Wurster noted a rising demand from clients for secure and comfortable methods to invest in cryptocurrencies, highlighting that many retain assets at Schwab while also holding some in digital-native firms.
Tom Lee, Chief Investment Officer at Fundstrat Global Advisors, added his perspective on the recent market conditions, suggesting that the current dip is driven more by liquidity issues rather than any underlying fundamental weaknesses. He indicated that confidence in the market requires time to stabilize but does not reflect any systemic risks akin to past crises such as the FTX collapse.
In another noteworthy development, Cathie Wood of Ark Invest recently adjusted her most bullish Bitcoin forecast down to $1.2 million by 2030, citing the rapid growth of stablecoins. Despite the revision, she remains positive about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, emphasizing the cryptocurrency’s potential role as a new global monetary system. Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas echoed this sentiment, predicting that Bitcoin could surge to over $1 million soon, reflecting its evolution into a crucial global reserve asset, potentially exceeding gold’s market value.
