Former Ohio State Treasurer Josh Mandel has disclosed a staggering loss exceeding $1.2 million on call options linked to BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). Mandel’s investment decision came on the heels of his ambitious prediction that Bitcoin would soar to $444,000 by November 8, a forecast that has ultimately proven to be wildly optimistic.
In a candid post on X (formerly Twitter), Mandel revealed that he had gone “all in” on IBIT call options, only to watch them expire worthless. He recounted his earlier trading strategy that included building an MSTR and MSTR-option-only portfolio, which initially favored long positions but later shifted to short trading. He initially predicted that Bitcoin would reach $84,000, a prediction that yielded some success. However, Mandel grew impatient and made a bold final call for Bitcoin’s price to reach $444,000, which did not materialize as anticipated.
In his post, Mandel emphasized the importance of transparency, refuting claims that he had misled investors or sought to profit through coin issuance. His declaration sheds light on the unpredictable nature of cryptocurrency investments, even for seasoned figures in the financial sector.
Long before Bitcoin speculation became mainstream, Mandel positioned Ohio as a leader in cryptocurrency adoption. In November 2018, while serving as State Treasurer, he launched OhioCrypto.com, which allowed businesses to pay state taxes using Bitcoin. Transactions were processed via BitPay and converted into U.S. dollars for the state treasury. At that time, Mandel championed Bitcoin as a “legitimate form of currency” and aimed to modernize state finances while attracting tech-savvy businesses to Ohio.
However, the OhioCrypto initiative encountered regulatory challenges following Mandel’s departure, leading to its suspension by his successor, Treasurer Robert Sprague, in 2019. The program attracted fewer than ten companies before it was ultimately shut down, largely due to concerns over the legality of BitPay’s payment structure under state procurement laws.
Mandel’s significant financial loss arrives amid a broader surge of interest in Bitcoin ETF options since their introduction in late 2024. Research from Kaiko noted that trading volumes for these options have increased, with many traders adopting bullish positions. Yet, recent performance of Bitcoin ETFs has been lackluster, experiencing outflows not seen since May, before recently recording its first inflow following a $2.9 billion outflow streak.
By publicly sharing his investment misjudgment, Mandel serves as a reminder that even experienced public figures can miscalculate timing and risk in the volatile world of digital assets. As regulated crypto derivatives gain traction and entice more investors, his experience underscores a critical lesson: that market predictions, no matter how confidently stated, come with no assurance of success.
