In a significant downturn for the cryptocurrency market, both Bitcoin and Ethereum are experiencing substantial declines, reaching lows that have not been seen in months. As traders grapple with fading hype and increasing sell pressure, forecasts on the Myriad prediction market indicate a predominately bearish outlook, with many anticipating further drops in prices.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $88,000, having plummeted over 20% in the past month. This decline has contributed to a broader contraction in the cryptocurrency market, which has shrunk to approximately $3.04 trillion, down 4.82% within 24 hours. A staggering 95% of cryptocurrencies are reporting losses, while the Fear and Greed Index dropped to 16, signaling extreme fear among investors—the lowest level since April. Zcash remains a rare exception in the top 50 cryptocurrencies, posting a modest 4% gain.
Market dynamics appear to be affected by macroeconomic factors, including diminished expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, a continued trend of outflows from Bitcoin ETFs—$523 million withdrawn from BlackRock alone recently—and increasing concerns about a potential “crypto winter” by 2026. These points have driven market sentiment even lower.
On the Myriad platform, 73.3% of users are now betting that Bitcoin will fall to $85,000, while just 26.7% believe it will recover to $115,000. Meanwhile, traders place a 62% probability that Ethereum will drop from its current price of around $2,800 down to $2,500.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s situation is deteriorating. The cryptocurrency opened today at $92,911 but quickly fell by over 4%, crossing critical psychological thresholds and marking a seven-month low. Notably, Bitcoin’s short-term 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has crossed below the long-term 200-day EMA, forming what is known as a “death cross.” This pattern typically signifies a bearish market sentiment.
Analysts are observing that Bitcoin’s current price sits beneath both the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, indicating significant resistance for any upward movement. The Average Directional Index (ADX), which gauges trend strength, stands at 38.25—a level denoting a strong downward trend. Additionally, Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 27.12, indicating it is in oversold territory, suggesting a potential for a reversal, though immediate price drops may still be likely.
Support levels for Bitcoin appear critical, with a Fibonacci retracement level at approximately $84,451 and stronger support at $71,486. Analysts note that if Bitcoin breaks below the current $88K-$89K zone, it could easily slide towards $85K or lower. However, the oversold nature reflected in the RSI implies that any dip might be brief as positions are flushed out in a sell-off.
Ethereum, meanwhile, has faced even steeper declines, falling 6.73% to close at around $2,911.8 from an opening price of $3,121.7. Despite exhibiting a “golden cross” pattern that typically signals bullish expectations, Ethereum is currently trading below both EMAs, suggesting a severe correction within an otherwise bullish trend. As the two EMAs edge closer to crossing, prospects for a violating “death cross” looms.
Notably, Ethereum’s ADX of 42.4 points to a strong bearish trend, while its RSI of 30.92 nearly touches the oversold threshold. This precarious state suggests that further downward movement could push the RSI deeper into oversold territory before any potential reversal occurs.
Key support for Ethereum is identified around $2,796, with stronger backing near $2,300. Predictions on Myriad indicate a 67% likelihood of Ethereum falling to $2,500 or lower. For bullish traders hoping for a recovery to $4,000, Ethereum must first establish new support in the $3,100-$3,200 range, a climb that looks increasingly daunting given the current technical indicators.
In summary, both Bitcoin and Ethereum are facing a challenging environment, with widespread bearish sentiment and the potential for further price declines unless significant support levels hold. The landscape remains volatile, and traders are urged to approach the market cautiously as conditions evolve.
