On the last trading day of the week, the Nifty opened significantly lower due to weak global market trends and diminishing expectations surrounding a US interest rate cut. After the initial gap down, the index made a brief recovery, yet this rebound lacked the momentum needed to sustain any upward movement. A fresh wave of selling pressure drove the Nifty down to an intraday low of 26,056. The index then entered a phase of consolidation, fluctuating between 26,056 and 26,011 for nearly two hours, indicating a standoff between buyers and sellers.
Ultimately, Nifty attempted to break free from this range but encountered stiff resistance near the day’s high of 26,175–26,180, which capped any further ascension. Subsequently, Nifty drifted lower and concluded a volatile session at 26,068, marking a decline of 0.47%.
In terms of sector performance, the Nifty FMCG sector was the sole gainer, finishing with a modest rise of 0.14%. Conversely, the Nifty Metal and Nifty Defence sectors emerged as the biggest decliners, each sagging by 2-2.3%. Individual stock performances also varied, with Maruti and Tata Consumer topping the gainers, while JSW Steel and Hindalco experienced substantial losses.
The broader market indices, represented by the Midcap 100 and Small Cap 100, underperformed when compared to the leading indices. Despite showing signs of recovery, the broader market continued its downward trajectory, both indices closing lower by approximately 1-1.2%. The advance–decline ratio reflected a bearish sentiment, with 414 of the Nifty 500 stocks finishing in negative territory. This suggests that the current rally lacks widespread participation, being predominantly driven by a select group of large-cap stocks rather than a broad market strength.
From a technical perspective, the Nifty’s daily chart indicated an inability to follow through on a strong close above the significant resistance level of 26,100 from the previous session. This suggests that buyers could not maintain their momentum. The RSI, despite showing signs of cooling, remains above the 60 mark, indicating that bullish momentum is still present. Additionally, rising bars in the MACD histogram hint at improving underlying momentum, often implying that any dips could see renewed buying interest.
Key levels for Nifty indicate that the 26,200 to 26,250 range will serve as significant resistance. A sustained advance above 26,250 could propel the index towards the 26,500 mark. Conversely, the 25,900 to 25,850 range is anticipated to offer robust support.
Turning to Bank Nifty, which had been achieving new highs for four consecutive sessions, it saw a reversal on this day. The index failed to hit a new peak, closing at 58,868, down 0.81%, as investors engaged in profit-booking following the recent upward momentum.
On the weekly chart, Bank Nifty had earlier broken out of a four-week consolidation period, with 58,550–58,650 acting as a significant resistance zone. Indicators suggest that the ongoing uptrend remains robust, as the ADX shows a slight uptick, confirming strength. The rising MACD histogram bars are also indicative of strengthening upward momentum, supporting the view of continued breakout.
In terms of key levels for Bank Nifty, the 59,300–59,400 zone is deemed crucial for resistance. Any sustained movement beyond 59,400 could see the index targeting the 60,000 level. On the downside, the 58,600-58,500 zone is expected to provide solid support for the index moving forward.
