Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $91,503, reflecting a 1.14% increase during the Thanksgiving session on November 27, 2025. This follows a strong week for Bitcoin, which saw a 12% rebound from last Friday’s drop to $80,600, marking its lowest price point in seven months. The recent uptick comes after Bitcoin reached an intraday high of $91,925, continuing to test session maximums.
Despite this corrective rebound, some analysts, including myself, caution that this could merely be a bull trap as bearish sentiments linger. Following an all-time high of over $126,000 in October, there are concerns about a sustained downtrend with projections suggesting a potential fall to around $74,000, this year’s lows.
The current rally has been largely driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, with market odds for a cut rising from below 44% to 85% in just a week. Bitcoin had been struggling to maintain levels above $90,000 but managed to surpass that threshold on Wednesday, continuing its upward trend today.
Market analysis reveals a significant oversold condition for Bitcoin, as evidenced by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which has dipped to 23—often a sign of a market bottom. In contrast, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has reached lows not seen this year, typically associated with recovery phases for Bitcoin.
Moreover, institutional interest appears to be making a comeback. Recent inflow data for Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) shows positive movement after major players like BlackRock and Fidelity re-entered the market. Nearly a billion dollars in liquidations have eliminated over-leveraged long contracts, potentially clearing the way for a technical rebound.
However, there are significant short-term concerns. Bitcoin still faces a resistance challenge in the $92,000 to $94,000 range, marked by the 100% Fibonacci extension and 61.8% retracement levels from earlier this year. Currently, Bitcoin trades below this critical resistance, which means analysts like Iliya Kalchev of Nexo foresee a bearish narrative until the price can reclaim this zone for more sustained growth.
The technical indicators are bearish overall; Bitcoin has fallen beneath the 200-day exponential moving average, which sits at $109,985—17% above current prices. Historical patterns show that such crossovers, known as death crosses, have often preceded positive price movements in the subsequent months.
Predictive outlooks vary widely among experts. Tom Lee, chair of Fundstrat, has revised his year-end Bitcoin target downward from $250,000 to “above $100,000,” indicating a belief that Bitcoin might still reach new highs before the year’s end. He emphasized that some of Bitcoin’s best days might still lie ahead, with 35 days remaining in the year.
On the other hand, Cathie Wood from ARK Invest remains bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term potential, maintaining a price target of $1.5 million by 2030, despite recent market downturns. Wood noted that improving liquidity could lead to better market conditions, suggesting a return of $300 billion to the markets as overall economic conditions improve.
Not all analysts agree with this optimistic stance. Valdrin Tahiri from CCN predicts that Bitcoin may enter a bearish phase, potentially dropping to $73,000 in 2026 and $57,000 by the end of 2027 if current trends continue. Glassnode echoed these concerns, indicating a lack of buying momentum in the market.
Given the contradictory signals and predictions, the outlook for Bitcoin remains uncertain. While a short-term rebound is evident, the long-term trajectory may still reflect deeper issues requiring careful navigation by investors.
