Bitcoin’s recent decline from its peak has sparked renewed scrutiny regarding its role as a reliable store of value, especially with its year-to-date gains now completely erased. Concerns have mounted regarding the ambitious price predictions for the cryptocurrency as we look toward 2026. A central question persists: when will Bitcoin demonstrate the stability and reliability akin to a traditional store of value?
Nate Geraci, president of NovaDius Wealth Management, discussed these themes on CNBC’s “ETF Edge” podcast, emphasizing the ongoing challenges Bitcoin faces in proving itself as a digital equivalent to gold. Traditionally viewed as “digital gold,” Bitcoin has not consistently mirrored gold’s performance during economic stress, often moving in tandem with risk assets like stocks.
Geraci noted that Bitcoin’s performance has been particularly erratic during market dips. For example, despite demonstrating resilience during the “tariff tantrum” in April 2025—when stock prices tumbled following President Trump’s tariff announcements—Bitcoin’s recent downturn, triggered by weaknesses in the tech sector, has seen it decline even more sharply than the broader stock market.
“The jury is still out,” Geraci stated, reflecting on Bitcoin’s mixed performance. While he believes Bitcoin is on a gradual path towards behaving more like gold, he likens its current volatility to that of a “teenager” still in its formative years at roughly 15 to 16 years old, contrasting it with gold’s rich, millennia-long history.
Despite the recent downturn, Bitcoin has maintained a positive trend since January 2024, fueled largely by the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which had led to significant market inflows. Geraci highlights that the cryptocurrency has more than doubled in value since the start of the year. However, recent outflows from these ETFs have raised alarm, with many pulling back their investments as market volatility increased.
The current chain of events appears to have been exacerbated by leverage within the crypto market, which Geraci suggests needed to be “flushed out.” He observes that in addition to Bitcoin, crypto index ETFs—which invest in a diverse basket of digital assets—may gain traction among investors looking for diversification within this emerging asset class.
Nonetheless, Geraci views most other cryptocurrencies as closely resembling high-growth tech stocks rather than stable stores of value. He believes that many of these digital assets will continue to move in correlation with stock markets during downturns. The narrative surrounding Bitcoin as a safe haven may require further validation as it navigates its uniqueness amid a fluctuating landscape of cryptocurrencies.
