The Vietnamese stock market has recently experienced a notable rally, marking nine consecutive sessions of growth, pushing the VN-Index closer to its peak from mid-October. However, this positive trend has not translated into profits for many retail investors, highlighting a phenomenon often referred to as “green shell, red heart.” While the index has surged, many stock prices remain in the red, particularly outside a select few leading stocks.
A prominent example is Vingroup (VIC), whose shares have soared dramatically in the last two sessions, contributing significantly to the VN-Index. Nonetheless, the overall index only increased by less than 1% due to declines in various sectors, including banking, securities, and real estate. Since the beginning of the year, the VN-Index has climbed by 487 points, with VIC alone contributing 239 points. When factoring in the performance of other stocks within the Vingroup ecosystem—VHM, VPL, and VRE—the total contribution rises to 343 points.
The uneven distribution of this growth becomes apparent as many large-cap stocks, such as VCB, FPT, and DGC, have diverged from the general upward trend. Despite some blue-chip stocks showing gains since the start of the year, many have dropped significantly from their recent peaks. Popular stocks among retail investors, including HPG, TCB, VPB, SSI, and NVL, are down by 15-25% compared to their highs.
Vingroup has made headlines by achieving unprecedented market capitalization, approaching 1.2 quadrillion VND and accounting for over 15% of the total value on the HoSE exchange. When considering all shares under Pham Nhat Vuong’s umbrella, the group comprises nearly a quarter of the exchange’s market value, thus wielding considerable influence over the VN-Index.
This concentration of growth has created a distorted reflection of market trends, where the VN-Index continues to rise while most retail investors see their account balances diminish. For latecomers hoping to capitalize on the October market surge, many are facing significant losses, despite the index nearing the 1,800-point mark.
As a result of the rapid price increases in leading stocks, profit-taking pressures are to be expected, posing challenges to market stability. Nevertheless, with many large stocks retreating to attractive valuation levels—equivalent to an index of about 1,500, or even as low as 1,200 points—there is hope that the market won’t undergo excessive corrections if capital flows diversify into other sectors.
For sustainable growth and to reach new highs, the market needs broader support across different sectors rather than relying on a handful of stocks. Addressing the current “green shell, red heart” situation will require at least one major sector—such as banking, securities, or real estate—to put forth positive movements.
Looking at the medium to long-term prospects, Dragon Capital has indicated that Vietnam’s market is poised for sustained positive growth through 2025-2026. They forecast that profits for the 80 firms they monitor will rise by 21.3% in 2025, followed by a continued growth of 16.2% in 2026.
Additionally, the market’s current valuation appears attractive, with a projected P/E ratio of about 12.5-13 times for 2025, and about 11 times for 2026—lower than many regional counterparts despite its strong profit growth. Vietnam’s anticipated upgrade from frontier to emerging market status could lead to extensive re-rating, attracting significant international capital and fueling a new growth cycle.
Similarly, Petri Deryng, head of PYN Elite Fund, suggests that current macroeconomic policies are fostering an even more favorable environment for Vietnam’s economic growth and increased profitability among listed companies. This foreign fund has even revised its VN-Index target to 3,200 points by 2028, assuming an average profit growth rate of around 18-20% in the coming years.
