Coinbase is preparing to launch an in-house prediction market in collaboration with Kalshi, according to sources close to the development. This initiative aims to diversify the range of asset classes available on the cryptocurrency exchange, particularly at a time when many investors are becoming wary of digital assets. Formal announcements regarding the prediction market are anticipated soon, possibly as early as next week.
Speculations about the prediction market have been circulating for nearly a month. A screenshot allegedly depicting Coinbase’s prediction markets dashboard was shared by Silicon Valley researcher Jane Manchun Wong in a post on X, dated November 18. Subsequent reports suggested that Coinbase would officially introduce its prediction markets powered by Kalshi during its upcoming “Coinbase System Update” event on December 17. Bloomberg further reported that Coinbase would also unveil a tokenized stock offering at the same event.
While Coinbase has not confirmed these reports, the firm has advised interested parties to stay tuned for the event next week, without offering specifics on the launch timeline of the prediction markets.
This development aligns with Coinbase’s strategy to position itself as an “everything exchange,” which aims to serve as a comprehensive platform for trading various asset types, including cryptocurrencies, tokenized stocks, and event contracts. In May, CEO Brian Armstrong outlined this vision, stating that the company seeks to evolve into a leading financial services application within the next decade.
The push to expand financial offerings comes amid increasing competition from other platforms such as Robinhood, Gemini, and Kraken. Each of these rivals has introduced tokenized equity offerings and explored prediction markets over the past year, further intensifying the competitive landscape.
Additionally, as investor interest in digital assets wanes, Coinbase’s expansion efforts appear more critical. A series of liquidations in mid-October, stemming from highly leveraged digital asset positions, led to market pullbacks, causing many investors to shift their focus toward safer assets like gold. Bitcoin has struggled as well, dropping to around $85,000 in early December—its lowest point since March—and trading down approximately 23% over the past three months.
Coinbase’s recent decline of over 16% within the same timeframe highlights the challenges it faces as it aims to innovate in a fluctuating market.
The collaboration with Kalshi also signals the latter’s ambition to integrate its event contracts into various brokerage platforms. This year, Kalshi has successfully embedded its prediction markets into the Robinhood trading platform as part of a non-exclusive partnership and is pursuing similar arrangements with several other prominent brokerages, including those in the cryptocurrency sector. As the prediction markets space becomes increasingly competitive, these moves indicate a strategic focus on expanding accessibility and engagement in this evolving financial landscape.
