On July 11, 2025, a vibrant scene unfolded outside the New York Stock Exchange, where a small replica of the iconic Charging Bull statue caught the eye of passersby, signifying the market’s latest fluctuations. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite experienced notable gains, driven primarily by a surge in technology stocks following a favorable federal court ruling for Google, enabling the tech giant to retain its Chrome browser.
Investor sentiment received an additional boost from expectations of an impending interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. According to the CME Fedwatch tool, there was a striking 96.6% probability that the Fed would introduce a cut during their September meeting. Despite this optimism, a contrasting narrative emerged as weak economic data raised concerns among investors. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover report revealed that job openings fell to approximately 7.18 million in July, marking a significant decline and the second instance since late 2020 where the figures dipped below 7.2 million. This downturn echoed worries regarding a softening labor market.
Economists have been speculating about upcoming reports, anticipating that Thursday’s ADP private payroll numbers would reflect tepid growth for August and predicting a slight increase in jobless claims. Additionally, expectations surrounding Friday’s unemployment report suggest a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, up from 4.2%.
In summary, while a potential Fed rate cut may be on the horizon, the labor market’s current trajectory presents a contrasting reality.
In market movements, U.S. indices generally witnessed gains, bolstered by tech stocks after the court decision concerning Google. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose by 1.03%, and the S&P 500 increased by 0.51%. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a marginal decline. Across the Atlantic, Europe saw a stark contrast, with the Stoxx 600 index plunging by 1.47%, its steepest loss since early August, largely influenced by declines in tech and travel sectors.
Meanwhile, global bond markets faced renewed pressure as long-dated bonds came under scrutiny amid investor apprehensions regarding fiscal and monetary policy strategies across major economies. Yields on 30-year bonds in the U.S., UK, Japan, and Germany rose sharply, with Japanese bonds reaching an unprecedented high.
In regulatory news, the U.S. government revoked a waiver that previously allowed major chipmakers, including TSMC and SK Hynix, to export critical chip technology to China. TSMC confirmed that an expedited export privilege known as validated end user status would end on December 31.
On the retail front, Amazon announced plans to discontinue its Prime Invitee Program, which allowed Prime members to share shipping benefits with individuals outside their households. Users received notifications that the program would be eliminated effective October 1.
In commodities, gold prices surged to unprecedented levels, with spot values exceeding $3,500 amid continued strong demand for the precious metal.
An intriguing development emerged from Washington, DC, where Apple CEO Tim Cook met with President Trump. The discussion centered on tariffs, with Cook having successfully navigated previous threats to Apple’s business by committing to a $100 billion investment in the U.S. However, analysts suggest that the impact of tariffs may soon be felt by consumers, with potential price increases for Apple devices anticipated in the near future, even as the company seeks to mitigate the tariffs’ adverse effects.
