The price of HBAR has remained relatively stable today, despite enduring a sharp decline of nearly 29% over the past month. Over the last week, HBAR has experienced a downturn of approximately 6%. While the current price trends may appear weak, a closer examination reveals a more intricate situation. Retail demand has shown signs of decline; however, significant accumulation among larger investors, or “whales,” has been noted in the past two days, suggesting a potential base formation amid the ongoing price weakness.
HBAR is currently trading within a falling wedge pattern, which is typically viewed as a bullish formation indicating that sellers may be losing strength. However, an alarming trend has emerged within this pattern. Between December 7 and December 11, HBAR made a higher low in price, while the On-Balance Volume (OBV) metric indicated a lower low. The OBV is a cumulative volume indicator that monitors inflows and outflows of a token. The divergence between the price and OBV signals that retail buyers are not exerting enough purchasing power to sustain recent price increases, introducing a bearish divergence even within the confines of a traditionally bullish structure.
In stark contrast, whale activity has surged. Accounts holding a minimum of 10 million HBAR have increased from 136.54 to 149.49, while those holding at least 100 million jumped from 40.65 to 73.62. Collectively, these whales have accumulated approximately 3.42 billion HBAR in less than 48 hours, equivalent to a monetary value of around $445 million at current prices.
Despite the weak retail support represented in the OBV, which may overlook significant off-exchange transactions, the whale actions may indicate a response to a more substantial underlying signal. An encouraging pattern has emerged between October 17 and December 11, where prices established a lower low while the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which gauges the rate of price changes, reflected a higher low. This scenario forms a classic bullish divergence, traditionally linked to reversals in downtrends.
Such divergences appeared before prior price rallies; specifically, on December 1 and December 7, when HBAR surged by 15% and 12% respectively from its lows. While these movements ultimately faced resistance, the current instance of divergence paired with notable whale accumulation has elevated the significance of a potential reversal.
For HBAR to make a more definitive shift from bearish to bullish sentiment, it must achieve a daily close above $0.159—a level it has failed to surpass during previous bounces. A breakout above this threshold would not only breach the upper trend line of the falling wedge but also open doors for potential movement towards $0.198 and $0.219.
Conversely, should the price falter further, the critical support level to monitor is $0.122. A drop below this point would return HBAR to the wedge’s lower boundary, signaling ongoing seller dominance over the market. At present, OBV suggests subdued demand, while the RSI indicates a bullish setup, countered by the substantial accumulation by whales at the recent lows. Should HBAR successfully clear the $0.159 resistance, the whale activity could serve as a considerable momentum shift rather than a mere background factor.
