Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and a prominent figure in the cryptocurrency market, has expressed a bullish outlook on Bitcoin, predicting that its price could surge to $200,000 by March before stabilizing around $124,000. This forecast is anchored in Hayes’ analysis of the Federal Reserve’s recently introduced “Reserve Management Purchases” (RMP) policy, which he likens to quantitative easing (QE), a tactic known for stimulating economic activity through increased money supply.
In a blog post, Hayes shared his thoughts on RMP, stating, “Immediately, I recognized it, understood its meaning, and treasured it like my long-lost love, quantitative easing (QE).” He emphasized his support for QE, explaining that it typically leads to higher valuations for financial assets, including Bitcoin, gold, and related mining stocks. According to Hayes, the theoretical extension of money printing could drive Bitcoin to eventually replace traditional fiat currencies and the fractional reserve banking system.
Previously, Hayes had estimated that Bitcoin could reach as high as $250,000 by the end of the year, a prediction he has since recalibrated. Currently, he anticipates that Bitcoin will close out 2023 in the range of $80,000 to $100,000, setting the stage for a potentially explosive start to 2024.
As Hayes outlined his expectations, he argued that as market participants begin to equate the RMP to QE, Bitcoin’s value could swiftly rise past $124,000. “March will mark peak expectations for the power of the RMP to ramp asset prices,” he noted, hinting at a subsequent correction but maintaining that a local bottom will form well above $124,000.
In tandem with his Bitcoin predictions, Hayes has also highlighted interest in Ethena’s native token, ENA, viewing it as a strategic play amid traditional finance dynamics versus crypto USD rates.
At present, Bitcoin is trading around $88,000, which places it approximately 30% below its all-time high of $126,080. Meanwhile, a recent report from the crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant suggests that Bitcoin may have entered a bear market, based on various market indicators suggesting a significant downturn since early October.
Hayes’ insights underline a contentious and rapidly evolving dialogue surrounding cryptocurrency valuations, monetary policy, and the broader economic landscape as market participants brace for the implications of RMP on asset prices.
