In a recent analysis, Alex Thorn, the head of firmwide research at Galaxy Digital, has made an optimistic but cautious prediction about Bitcoin’s future value. He anticipates that the flagship cryptocurrency could reach $250,000 by the end of 2027. However, Thorn acknowledges the difficulties in forecasting Bitcoin’s price movements for the upcoming year, particularly for 2026, citing the unpredictability of the market.
Current data from options markets indicates that there is an equal likelihood of Bitcoin either hitting $50,000 or $250,000 by the close of next year. Thorn emphasized that this wide disparity underscores the prevailing uncertainty in the near-term outlook for Bitcoin. As Bitcoin grapples with a significant bear market, it has struggled to regain bullish momentum, a situation he discussed in a recent social media update.
This uncertainty is compounded by the approaching U.S. midterm elections, which Thorn believes will further add to market volatility. He observed that Bitcoin is undergoing a transformation from a speculative asset to a more established financial instrument. Over the past year, there has been a noticeable decline in the longer-term volatility associated with BTC, suggesting a shift towards increased stability.
Thorn highlighted a shift in market sentiment, noting that six months ago, traders were willing to pay a premium for call options in anticipation of a substantial rally. However, the current market sees a reversal in this trend, with put options now more expensive than calls. This change reflects a growing concern among traders about protecting their investments against market downturns rather than seeking potential upward gains.
The observed shift in sentiment indicates that Bitcoin is transitioning from price dynamics typically associated with emerging markets to characteristics more akin to traditional macroeconomic assets. This evolution suggests that Bitcoin may soon follow in the footsteps of gold, potentially becoming a widely accepted hedge against monetary debasement in the next couple of years.
