Reports indicate that analysts at Fundstrat are divided over Bitcoin’s trajectory for 2026, presenting a noteworthy divergence in their forecasts. One faction anticipates a significant pullback early in the year, while another envisions the possibility of new record highs shortly thereafter.
Sean Farrell, the head of digital asset strategy at Fundstrat, reportedly communicated to clients that under a “base case” scenario, Bitcoin is expected to decline to the $60,000–$65,000 range in the first half of 2026. This outlook also includes projections for other major cryptocurrencies, with Ethereum (ETH) potentially settling around $1,800–$2,000 and Solana (SOL) hovering between $50 and $75. These price points are framed as potential buying opportunities should the market undergo a correction.
Farrell’s communication emphasizes the importance of risk management and contingency planning for a substantial price drawdown before any trend reversal occurs. His notes, which have circulated among clients and on social media, embody a cautious strategy that advocates for capitalizing on lower price levels if the opportunity arises.
In stark contrast, Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat and a long-time advocate for Bitcoin, has publicly expressed a bullish outlook, predicting that Bitcoin could reach new all-time highs by early 2026. Some media reports have even cited optimistic estimates that place Bitcoin’s price as high as $200,000 by the end of January 2026. Lee attributes this expected upward movement to macroeconomic factors, institutional investment flows, and market cycle dynamics.
The contrasting views within the firm reflect different analytical focuses, with one branch concentrated on downside risk management and the other on broader macroeconomic scenarios. This divergence has sparked discussions among clients and market observers, who argue that the differing expectations should not be regarded as contradictory but rather as reflective of distinct investment horizons and mandates.
Market reactions to these internal forecasts have been mixed, characterized by skepticism and immediate profit-taking strategies. Some traders highlighted the volatility of market sentiment in response to leaked internal documents, while others noted that the wide range of predictions, from approximately $60,000 to $200,000, underscores the uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin’s price in 2026.
Despite the internal inconsistencies, Fundstrat has not issued a unified public forecast that reconciles these differing perspectives. Instead, clients and market participants are encouraged to weigh the potential downside scenarios articulated by the digital assets team against the optimistic macro outlook presented by firm leadership.
