Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a notable uptick, rising from $88,000 during Asian trading hours to surpass the $90,000 mark in the afternoon of European markets on Monday. However, there remains a layer of caution as U.S. markets prepare to take over trading activities. Historically, BTC has shown a trend of early support during Asia and Europe trading hours, followed by declines when U.S. investors re-enter the market. This observed dynamic transforms the U.S. trading session into a critical test for whether price surges can be sustained.
In the past, upward movements through key price levels, including the significant $90,000 threshold, have frequently reversed during New York trading hours. Such reversals are often attributed to profit-taking and the addition of hedges, which can lead to significant liquidations, sometimes amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars amid volatile trading conditions.
Data from CoinGlass shows that Bitcoin futures open interest has been steadily increasing in tandem with BTC’s rise, approaching $60 billion across prominent platforms. Major exchanges like Binance, CME, and Bybit recorded significant increases in open interest, indicating an influx of fresh leverage rather than just short position cover. This development underscores a familiar pattern observed in recent weeks: price gains tend to occur just before U.S. trading hours, followed by intensified selling once U.S. traders enter the market.
The current concern, then, is not merely the breakout above $90,000 but whether this rally is underpinned by genuine spot market demand or if it is primarily reliant on leveraged futures trading. An increase in open interest alongside rising prices doesn’t inherently suggest a looming risk, but it does heighten the stakes. Should the upward momentum persist, leveraged positions could amplify potential gains. Conversely, if the bullish trend falters, the crowded market positioning may expose it to swift pullbacks as long positions are liquidated.
For bullish investors, the danger lies in the possibility that failing to maintain the $90,000 level during U.S. trading hours could reinforce a troubling trend of lower highs and rapid pullbacks. In contrast, a sustained move above this price point could signify a departure from the prevalent behavior of selling at the open, which has characterized much of the month.
