Bitcoin has experienced a tumultuous December in 2025, marked by a nearly 9% price drop and a surge in volatility reaching peaks not seen since April. In its latest mid-December “ChainCheck” report, VanEck’s analysts provided a detailed overview of the current landscape, indicating a mix of caution and optimism for long-term investors.
On-chain activity has shown signs of weakness, yet liquidity conditions appear to be improving. Notably, speculative leverage is resetting, which could bode well for those holding Bitcoin for the long haul. The report highlighted a notable disparity between different groups of investors. Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) have aggressively bought the dip, accumulating 42,000 BTC, marking their largest addition since July and pushing their total holdings beyond the one million BTC threshold. This suggests a significant shift toward corporate accumulation rather than retail-driven speculation, especially as Bitcoin exchange-traded product (ETP) investors have reduced their exposure.
Moreover, some DATs are reportedly exploring alternative financing methods, such as issuing preferred shares instead of common stock, to fund their purchasing and operational strategies—indicative of a more calculated and strategic approach. The report also revealed a divergence in behavior between medium- and long-term holders. Tokens held for one to five years have seen considerable movement, potentially indicating profit-taking or portfolio reallocation. In contrast, coins held for more than five years have remained largely untouched, signaling that long-term holders maintain their faith in Bitcoin’s future.
Bitcoin miners have also faced their own set of challenges, particularly a 4% decline in network hash rates during December—the most significant drop since April 2024. Regulatory pressures, especially from regions such as Xinjiang, have resulted in major mining operations scaling back output. The report noted a decrease in breakeven electricity costs for major mining rigs, which reflects tighter profit margins. Historically, however, falling hash rates have often served as a bullish contrarian indicator, with periods of reduced network power frequently preceding positive forward returns over a 90- to 180-day horizon.
VanEck’s analysis employs a framework called GEO (Global Liquidity, Ecosystem Leverage, Onchain Activity) to assess Bitcoin’s structural health beyond daily price fluctuations. Under this framework, the improving liquidity and the accumulation trends among DATs act as a balancing force against weaker on-chain metrics, such as stagnating new addresses and declining transaction fees.
Compounding the situation are broader macroeconomic trends. The U.S. dollar has weakened to near three-month lows, impacting precious metals positively, yet Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies continue to be under pressure. Nevertheless, the evolving financial ecosystem may provide new opportunities, as evidenced by the emergence of “everything exchanges.” These platforms aim to integrate various asset classes—including stocks, crypto, and prediction markets—leveraging AI-driven trading technologies. Just recently, Coinbase expanded its platform to include stock trading, prediction markets, futures, and other features, indicating a competitive push from both traditional brokerages and crypto-native firms to increase market share.
Despite Bitcoin’s impressive performance over the past two to three years, with its value doubling and nearly tripling respectively, volatility remains a defining characteristic. The lack of extreme market peaks or drawdowns has tempered high expectations for dramatic price moves. Analysts predict future Bitcoin price fluctuations may be more subdued, with midterm investors experiencing smaller cycles of ups and downs rather than the explosive swings of previous cycles.
Overall, VanEck characterizes the current market as undergoing a correction. With short- to medium-term speculative activities receding, long-term holders maintaining their positions, and institutional accumulation on the rise, combined with signs of miner capitulation and subdued volatility, the overall environment appears to be one of structural recalibration. As 2025 comes to a close, Bitcoin may be entering a period of consolidation that reflects the broader maturation of the market, potentially leading to strong positive price movements in the first quarter of the following year.
