Bitcoin has kicked off the new year on a high note, experiencing a significant price surge driven by renewed optimism and robust inflows into spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This momentum comes despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly following a recent US military strike on Venezuela. The overall market has displayed remarkable resilience, indicating that investors are prioritizing liquidity trends and institutional demand rather than reacting to short-term macro uncertainties.
Recent changes in the behavior of Bitcoin whales—individuals or entities that hold large amounts of the cryptocurrency—have been particularly telling. In the days leading to the new year, addresses holding between 10,000 and 100,000 BTC sold approximately 50,000 BTC, reflecting a cautious distribution phase as Bitcoin attempted to consolidate below significant resistance levels. However, in a notable turnaround over the last 24 hours, these whale wallets have begun to accumulate once again, acquiring around 10,000 BTC valued at approximately $912 million after Bitcoin surpassed the $90,000 mark. This renewed confidence among large holders could provide the buying support necessary to absorb any near-term selling pressure.
In contrast, Bitcoin miners present a more complex scenario that acts as a counterweight to the overall bullish sentiment. Recent data indicates a sharp increase in miner selling, with net outflows escalating from 55 BTC to 604 BTC in the past 24 hours. This uptick reflects miners taking advantage of current market prices to realize profits. Although this volume is relatively small compared to the total market supply, such selling can influence short-term dynamics. It introduces additional supply into the market, which might dampen Bitcoin’s upside momentum, particularly if demand growth fails to keep pace.
Despite these mixed signals, Bitcoin has recently broken out of a six-week descending wedge pattern, trading near $91,327. This technical breakout suggests that market momentum is shifting positively. For this upward trend to hold, Bitcoin needs to establish a firm support level at $92,031, which would pave the way for further gains toward the $95,000 mark.
Achieving sustained bullish confirmation requires reclaiming key moving averages. The 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), currently around $91,554, and the 365-day EMA at approximately $97,403, are acting as critical resistance levels. Successfully flipping these levels into support could signal a more robust trend reversal and would significantly enhance the chances of Bitcoin retaking the $100,000 milestone.
However, short-term risks remain tied to macroeconomic reactions. Global markets are expected to react to the US’s military actions in Venezuela when trading resumes. A negative response could exert downward pressure on Bitcoin, potentially pushing prices back toward the $90,000 level or lower, thereby complicating the immediate bullish outlook.
