Bitcoin remained steady near $92,000 on Tuesday, with analysts suggesting that positive technical and macroeconomic signals indicate that the cryptocurrency could have moved past a challenging fourth-quarter sell-off. This stability follows a tumultuous period characterized by a steep decline of as much as 35% from an October peak of over $126,000, influenced by forced liquidations and selling by long-term holders. December marked a third consecutive month of losses for Bitcoin, a deviation from historical trends, yet some analysts express optimism about a potential rebound.
Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani and his team expressed confidence that Bitcoin and the broader digital asset markets have reached a bottom, identifying the late-November low of around $80,000 as a likely trough. They dismissed concerns about Bitcoin peaking in a traditional four-year cycle, describing such fears as “overstated.” The analysts emphasized that institutional demand, rather than retail speculation, is increasingly shaping the market.
In terms of long-term projections, Bernstein reiterated its bullish outlook for Bitcoin, setting price targets of $150,000 for 2026 and $200,000 for 2027. They argue that the ongoing “digital assets revolution,” encompassing tokenization and improved regulatory frameworks, is prolonging the current bull market beyond historical patterns. Chhugani acknowledged Bitcoin’s approximately 6% decline in 2025 but noted that the year remained favorable for the broader crypto sector, particularly for equities related to cryptocurrencies and initial public offerings.
Looking ahead, Bernstein anticipates a “tokenization supercycle” spearheaded by companies like Robinhood, Coinbase, Figure, and Circle, which is expected to attract further institutional investment. Other market analysts share this sentiment, with 10X Research indicating that technical indicators point toward Bitcoin entering a bullish phase following a period of stagnant trading during the holidays.
Sean Farrell, head of digital assets at Fundstrat, suggested that improving liquidity conditions, including an expansion of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, could support risk assets like Bitcoin, paving the way for a tactical rally. Fundstrat estimates that Bitcoin could test the $105,000 to $106,000 range if conditions are favorable, although Farrell warned that there remains a possibility for a significant pullback in the first half of the year before a more robust rally takes shape later in 2026.
From a technical analysis standpoint, Bitcoin closed near $91,500 last week, just above a short-term resistance level at $91,400. Holding above this level could facilitate an attempt to break through the $94,000 ceiling that has capped prices since mid-November. A sustained breakout might target $98,000, with additional resistance observed between $103,500 and $109,000. Conversely, key support levels are seen around $87,000, with a stronger range between $84,000 and $72,000 if downward pressure returns.
Market sentiment has shifted from bearish to a more neutral outlook as prices stabilize. Analysts from Bernstein noted potential positive effects on Bitcoin proxy equities, particularly for companies like Strategy. They stated that a recovery in Bitcoin’s price could enhance Strategy’s premium to its net asset value, which has significantly declined over the past year. Historically, Strategy’s shares have traded at an average multiple of 1.57 times net asset value, compared to roughly 1.02 this week.
Despite these positive indicators, Strategy faces challenges, including the potential exclusion from MSCI indices, which could prompt significant index-related outflows. Nonetheless, the company continues its strategy of financing Bitcoin acquisitions through a combination of equity issuance and preferred stock offerings, while building up a $2.25 billion “USD Reserve” aimed at meeting dividend obligations.
