In a recent analysis, Ki Young Ju, the CEO of CryptoQuant, has expressed his expectation that Bitcoin will experience sideways trading during the first quarter of 2026. He highlighted a notable slowdown in capital inflows into the cryptocurrency, indicating that many investors are shifting their focus back to traditional markets.
Ju stated that the recent surge in prices for gold and silver has contributed to this trend, leading to diminished interest in Bitcoin as capital flows have become stagnant. While Bitcoin typically experiences strong momentum at the beginning of the year, Ju believes the current market dynamics suggest a period of minimal price movement rather than a sharp increase or decline.
As of the latest updates, Bitcoin was trading around $90,900, representing a decline of over 2% for the day, and falling from a weekly high near $94,400. Ju anticipates that the market is more likely to experience “boring sideways” trading in the months ahead, contradicting historical trends that usually see gains in January, February, and March. Data from CoinGlass indicates that January has averaged a 3.8% return since 2013, while February and March typically yield even higher gains of 13.1% and 12.2%, respectively.
This cautious outlook aligns with comments from veteran trader Peter Brandt and Fidelity’s macro research director Jurrien Timmer, both of whom have suggested the possibility of Bitcoin revisiting the $60,000–$65,000 range this year.
Ju noted that the liquidity channels in the market have diversified significantly, making it challenging to time inflows. He mentioned that institutions holding Bitcoin for the long term, like MicroStrategy with its substantial holdings, are unlikely to contribute to selling pressures.
Market sentiment remains subdued, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index indicating persistent caution among traders, hovering between “fear” and “extreme fear” since early November. As of Thursday, the index registered a score of 28.
Despite the overall weak sentiment, there are signs of institutional interest continuing to thrive. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded substantial inflows at the beginning of the year, amassing $925.3 million during the first three trading days, suggesting that institutional confidence in Bitcoin remains strong.
On a more optimistic note, prominent figures in the crypto space continue to express confidence in Bitcoin’s potential for 2026. Venture capitalist Tim Draper reaffirmed his long-held $250,000 price target, predicting that the year would mark a significant breakout for Bitcoin. Meanwhile, Ryan Rasmussen from Bitwise has theorized that Bitcoin may break its traditional four-year cycle and reach new highs this year.
Additionally, Abra CEO Bill Barhydt noted that an easing monetary policy could inject liquidity into global markets, potentially reviving risk appetite after a prolonged phase of tight financial conditions, further supporting Bitcoin in the upcoming year.
