In a bold declaration, asset management firm VanEck has positioned 2026 as a “risk-on” year for investors, even as Bitcoin has deviated from its traditional four-year cycle. CEO Jan van Eck highlights areas such as artificial intelligence (AI), private credit, and gold as promising investment opportunities in the wake of market corrections in late 2025.
VanEck’s outlook for the first quarter of 2026 underscores an unprecedented clarity in fiscal and monetary policy, a significant shift from the economic uncertainty that has characterized recent years. This assessment stands in contrast to Goldman Sachs’ forecast, which anticipates an 11% return on global stocks driven primarily by equities, while alternative assets are expected to lag.
The positive sentiment around market conditions is largely influenced by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s insights into Federal Reserve policy. Van Eck remarked on a particularly impactful podcast interview with Bessent, suggesting that the current interest rates reflect “normal levels” and do not warrant aggressive cuts. He noted that the Fed is likely to implement modest adjustments, predicting only a 25 to 50 basis point change throughout 2026. Bessent has called attention to the consequences of excessive quantitative easing post-COVID, which he claims has contributed to the persistent inflation rate of 10%, causing distress among the American populace.
With the U.S. fiscal landscape improving markedly—deficits decreasing as a percentage of GDP from the peaks seen during the pandemic—VanEck forecasts that the deficit for fiscal year 2026 will be at or below 5.5% of GDP. This estimate counters more pessimistic projections from Wall Street. Van Eck believes that GDP growth could significantly surpass current consensus estimates, noting that Bessent indicated analysts may be substantially underestimating potential growth, especially given that the fourth-quarter 2025 growth was recorded at an impressive 4%.
Concerns regarding the upcoming confirmation of a new Federal Reserve chair in May 2026, particularly the influence of Donald Trump, have prompted some market apprehension. However, Van Eck maintains that Bessent’s groundwork should facilitate a stable confirmation process.
Regarding investment opportunities, VanEck’s latest analysis suggests that AI valuations have adjusted favorably following the late-2025 corrections. Van Eck emphasized a potential “reload” opportunity for investors, as many companies involved in AI infrastructure, especially those reliant on debt, have seen their stock prices decline by over 50% from previous highs. For instance, Oracle’s stock has dropped notably despite robust demand for its services.
Investors may also find value in business development companies, which are currently offering returns around 9%. Van Eck noted that concerns regarding the floating-rate debt in private markets may have led to exaggerated fears, thus creating appealing entry points for investors.
Gold is highlighted as another significant asset, bolstered by global demand, particularly from central banks, amid geopolitical uncertainties. Recent developments in Venezuela have heightened this uncertainty, reinforcing the appeal of precious metals. VanEck views any short-term pullbacks in gold prices as potential buying opportunities, projecting a sustained bullish trend for gold through 2028 and beyond.
However, the disruption of Bitcoin’s typical four-year cycle has muddied its near-term prospects. Bitcoin experienced the weakest performance among major assets in 2025, failing to achieve its expected peaks. Van Eck acknowledged the challenges posed by this cycle break, and his cautious outlook extends over the next three to six months, mirroring concerns voiced by CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju about dwindling capital inflows into Bitcoin. As investor interest rotates towards stocks and gold, expectations of sideways trading in Bitcoin are anticipated through the first quarter of 2026.
