Bitcoin has stabilized above $78,000 after experiencing a significant decline over the weekend; however, it remains down more than 10% for the week as market sentiment continues to be cautious. Analyst Gautam Chhugani from Bernstein noted that the cryptocurrency might still be in a short-term bear phase, although he predicts a possible reversal in the first half of 2026. He estimates that Bitcoin could bottom out in the range of its previous cycle highs around $60,000.
Chhugani expressed optimism that the anticipated reversal could be rapid, establishing a new higher baseline that may be pivotal for Bitcoin’s future, potentially setting the stage for what he terms the “Bitcoin sovereign cycle.” He warned, however, that typical reactions following drastic downturns, such as the recent crash, often lead to a dismissal of digital assets, despite strong macro and geopolitical indicators suggesting that this moment may represent a final opportunity for Bitcoin’s ascension as a sovereign asset.
In a contrasting assessment, Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, described the current market situation not as a mere correction or dip but as a severe crypto winter reminiscent of the turmoil experienced in 2022. He attributed this downturn to a combination of excessive leverage and profit-taking by early investors.
Short-term analysts at Bitunix highlighted the simultaneous occurrence of a risk-off sentiment and de-leveraging in the market, exacerbated by delays in policy expectations due to a government shutdown affecting the nonfarm payrolls report. In this climate, Bitcoin has emerged as a critical indicator of the market’s appetite for risk. Bitunix analysts identified the $80,000 level as crucial structural resistance; a breach of this level would indicate a resurgence of risk capital. Conversely, the $75,000 mark serves as key support, representing the threshold for the market’s absorption capacity amid continuing de-leveraging.
The analysts emphasized that Bitcoin’s ability to maintain its current range would influence whether the crypto market continues to undergo passive adjustments or begins to exhibit resilience and structural divergence.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced a surge, reporting $561.8 million in inflows on Monday, a rebound from the $1.49 billion outflows recorded the previous week, according to SoSoValue. Analysts from Glassnode mentioned that while the increase in spot volume appears promising, it seems reactive rather than indicative of robust dip buying, reflecting churn during continued downward pressure.
Overall, the analysts concluded that market conditions have transitioned into a distinct risk-off regime, impacting spot trading, derivatives, ETFs, and on-chain indicators, suggesting a cautious outlook moving forward.
