Bitcoin (BTC) opened at $75,980 on February 4, 2026, as traders focused on downside risks linked to the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) sitting around $68,400. Following four consecutive months of declines, market sentiment is cautious. Nic Puckrin, CEO of Coin Bureau, indicated that key price levels for traders include immediate support at $74,400, referencing prior lows from April, and a significant resistance shelf slightly above $69,000. Puckrin anticipates a deeper capitulation area between $55,700 and $58,200, correlated with the average realized price and the 200-week moving average.
The current bearish momentum follows a notable trend shift, as Bitcoin broke below the 50-week moving average in November and has since shown signs of weakness. The breaking of the 100-week moving average further solidified this downward trend, with external commentary suggesting a focus on the 200-week EMA at $68,000. Analysts point out that if Bitcoin drops below this level, it may trigger a bear market, particularly if it retests this significant support zone.
Other analysts, such as Altcoin Sherpa, echoed similar sentiments regarding the potential for a retest of the 200-week EMA, describing it as a logical target. Furthermore, BitBull shared insights into historical price behavior, emphasizing that whenever Bitcoin has dipped below the 100-week EMA, it has historically retested the 200-week level, suggesting that accumulation might be a wise strategy for long-term investors once that retest occurs.
In terms of market dynamics, recent data reveals a pattern of de-risking rather than a complete exit by institutional investors. Over the last two weeks, U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced nearly $2.8 billion in net redemptions, yet they still hold approximately $100.38 billion in net assets, a decline from over $125 billion noted in mid-January. While Bitcoin briefly dipped below $75,000, it has maintained a position in the mid-$70,000 range, a critical threshold where traders watch for potential forced deleveraging.
The significance of the 200-week moving average extends beyond mere technical analysis; it serves as a crucial support level for institutions. If Bitcoin were to trade at $75,000 while markets anticipate a retracement to $68,400, strategies might shift from “buy dips” to “sell rips” until the weekly candle either recoups the 100-week structure or achieves a definitive test of the 200-week zone. Here is where long-term investors are expected to re-enter the market with significant investments rather than participating in short-range bids.
This evolving landscape underscores the complexities within the cryptocurrency market, particularly amidst ongoing price fluctuations and changing investor sentiment.
