Vitol, the foremost independent oil trader globally, has revised its estimates regarding the peak of oil demand in a recent report published Monday. The firm now anticipates that demand will peak in the mid-2030s, a shift from earlier predictions which placed this peak in the early part of the decade. The commodities trading giant forecasts that demand could surge to approximately 112 million barrels per day (bpd) at its peak, with expectations that it will remain near this level with only a slight decline by the end of the forecast period. By 2040, they predict demand may rise around 5 million bpd above current levels, which already exceed 100 million bpd.
Vitol attributes this sustained demand to factors such as population growth, increasing incomes, and ongoing urbanization, all of which foster continued need for mobility, plastics, chemicals, and energy—including oil. The report highlights a robust industrial policy orientation in various regions, emphasizing domestic competitiveness and supply security, which further supports this demand dynamic.
The adjusted demand outlook is significantly influenced by the slower-than-anticipated adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) in key markets like the United States and Asia. Vitol indicates that this trend is only partially offset by accelerated adoption of EVs in emerging markets, along with a more favorable perspective on electric heavy commercial vehicles. In addition to these factors, the firm expects demand for jet fuel and liquified petroleum gas (LPG) to be significant contributors to the overall increase in oil demand.
This updated projection contrasts with widespread industry expectations of a looming oversupply that would depress prices at least through the first half of 2026. Contrary to this outlook, oil prices have displayed resilience this year, bolstered by geopolitical developments and stronger-than-forecast demand. Specifically, Brent crude, the international pricing benchmark, has risen by 11% year-to-date, while the US benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, has seen an increase of 10.4%.
Oil industry analysts are particularly focused on ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran concerning the Iranian regime’s nuclear enrichment activities. Given Iran’s strategic control over the Strait of Hormuz—a vital shipping channel—these discussions are crucial for the oil market’s stability and the future trajectory of prices.
