Vitol, the leading independent oil trader globally, has revised its forecasts regarding the peak of oil demand, now projecting it will occur in the mid-2030s instead of the previously anticipated early 2030s. In a recent report, the trading giant predicted that oil demand could peak at approximately 112 million barrels per day (bpd), with levels remaining close to this figure and experiencing only minimal decline by the end of the forecast period. Looking ahead to 2040, Vitol estimates demand will be around 5 million bpd higher than current levels, which sit slightly above 100 million bpd.
The report emphasizes that population growth, rising incomes, and ongoing urbanization are key factors sustaining the demand for oil across various sectors, including mobility, plastics, chemicals, and energy. Vitol attributed a notable influence from stronger industrial policies in several regions, which emphasize domestic competitiveness and supply security.
A significant point in Vitol’s revised demand outlook is the slower-than-expected uptake of electric vehicles (EVs) in both the US and Asian markets. While the adoption of EVs is seen as a counterbalancing factor to oil demand, the overall impact has been overshadowed by the continued reliance on oil, particularly in emerging markets. The report also highlights increasing demand for jet fuel and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) as contributing factors to the underlying oil demand.
Despite industry expectations of a significant oversupply leading to lower prices through at least mid-2026, the oil market has defied these predictions. Prices for crude oil have strengthened, influenced by geopolitical factors and stronger-than-expected demand this year. As of recent reports, Brent crude, the international benchmark, has risen by 11%, while the US benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), has seen an increase of 10.4%.
Current geopolitical tensions, particularly discussions between the US and Iran about the latter’s nuclear enrichment program, are noteworthy as Iran holds a considerable stake in global oil transport through its control of the Strait of Hormuz—an essential shipping chokepoint. This situation is closely monitored by industry analysts and traders due to its potential impact on oil supply and prices.
