Standard Chartered has revised its bitcoin price forecast significantly, bringing its year-end prediction down from $150,000 to $100,000. The bank anticipates a further decline in the near term, projecting that bitcoin could dip to $50,000 within a few months. Geoff Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital assets research, expressed concerns over the current market conditions, stating in a recent note that he predicts “more pain and a final capitulation period for digital asset prices” is likely.
Kendrick highlighted the struggling performance of bitcoin ETFs, which have seen an average holding drop of 25%. He indicated that under the increasingly challenging macroeconomic environment, current holders are more inclined to sell rather than take the opportunity to buy during dips. As of Thursday morning, bitcoin remained stuck around the $67,000 mark, representing a staggering 46% decline from its all-time high of $69,000 reached on October 6.
The cryptocurrency market is showing signs of distress, with bitcoin ETFs experiencing significant outflows—amounting to $276.3 million on Wednesday, according to the data from SoSoValue. Pratik Kala, the portfolio manager and head of research at Apollo Crypto, stated that he anticipates bitcoin prices will “chop around” for the next few months due to an absence of strong catalysts to drive the market. He predicts a solid base forming between the $58,000 and $68,000 range before potential upward movement occurs.
Moreover, analysts at Glassnode noted that bitcoin’s price is likely to hover within the Realized Price and True Market Mean corridor, similar to trends observed in Q2 of 2022. They emphasized that the market would require time and compression for new buyers to surface. A substantial change in market dynamics could necessitate either an extraordinary catalyst that reclaims the True Market Mean near $79,200 or a dislocation event comparable to the collapses of LUNA or FTX that might push bitcoin below the Realized Price around $55,000.
The data from Glassnode indicates that the recent downturn has left many new holders with unrealized losses, highlighting the fragile nature of the current market environment. Experts agree that macroeconomic risks will continue to weigh heavily on bitcoin, creating an atmosphere of uncertainty. Nic Puckrin, co-founder of Coin Bureau, echoed similar sentiments, predicting that bitcoin prices will likely find a bottom in the range of $55,700 to $58,200, aligning closely with Standard Chartered’s projections.
In the aftermath of last week’s market turmoil, Glassnode reported that bitcoin experienced its largest realized loss in history, tallying up to $3.2 billion. As the market grapples with volatility and uncertainty, the path forward for bitcoin remains fraught with challenges.
