The price of Hedera (HBAR) has experienced a downturn in recent sessions, currently trading at $0.0923, just under a crucial resistance level of $0.0938. This price action has formed a descending broadening wedge pattern, which is often seen as a precursor to a potential bullish breakout. However, the direction of Bitcoin continues to be a significant factor that could influence whether this breakout is realized.
Market indicators suggest that HBAR holders are becoming more cautious in their selling strategies. The Money Flow Index (MFI), an indicator used to indicate buying and selling pressure, is showing a bullish divergence against the HBAR price action. Recent trends show that while HBAR has set a lower low, the MFI has registered a higher reading. This divergence indicates that the selling pressure may be weakening, which is a sign that investors might be scaling back on their distribution activities, allowing HBAR to stabilize and potentially rebound.
Should HBAR successfully break out of the descending broadening wedge, it could trigger a wave of forced short liquidations. Current liquidation data reveals a significant concentration of short positions near the $0.1012 price level, meaning a move beyond this threshold could exert considerable pressure on bearish traders. The liquidation map indicates that short liquidations within this zone could amount to approximately $4.34 million. Such forced buying usually accelerates bullish momentum and helps to reinforce the breakout structure, particularly in a volatile market.
Despite the optimistic technical signals surrounding HBAR, Bitcoin’s performance continues to pose a challenge. There has been an observable increase in the correlation between HBAR and Bitcoin over the past few months. When Bitcoin experiences declines, HBAR often reflects this weakness, regardless of its own technical indicators. A slight divergence was noted between June and July 2025 when Bitcoin advanced but HBAR remained relatively flat; however, outside of this timeframe, HBAR typically follows Bitcoin’s lead.
As it stands, HBAR remains trapped within the descending broadening wedge at its current price of $0.0923. The critical resistance level at $0.0938 continues to limit upside movements. For a confirmed breakout, HBAR needs to not only surpass the $0.1005 mark but also establish it as support while decisively breaching the $0.1071 level. Successfully clearing these resistance points would bolster the bullish outlook for HBAR and could pave the way for a recovery toward $0.1300. The immediate aim remains breaking through $0.1071 before any sustained rally can occur.
On the flip side, renewed weakness in Bitcoin could jeopardize the bullish outlook for HBAR. If the price fails to overcome the resistance at $0.0938 or falls below the support at $0.0855, the risks of further declines would increase dramatically. A dip towards $0.0780 would signal ongoing consolidation and postpone any aspirations for a breakout.
