In a significant development affecting the cryptocurrency market, U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced outflows totaling $410 million on Thursday. This marked a continuation of a turbulent trend, as six of the last ten days witnessed negative cash flow. Key players in the market such as BlackRock’s IBIT led the outflow with a staggering $157.6 million, followed closely by Fidelity’s FBTC at $104.1 million and Grayscale’s GBTC at $59.1 million, according to data from SoSoValue. Over the past two weeks, these products have collectively lost nearly $1.5 billion.
Analysts attribute this pattern of withdrawal to a cautious repositioning by institutional investors, who are navigating an uncertain macroeconomic landscape. There is a noted shift in capital flow from spot Bitcoin ETFs toward more compliant derivatives channels such as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). This trend has raised concerns among market watchers, who fear a potential “head-fake rally,” indicating misleading short-term price movements until the overall credit market re-prices risk.
Commenting on the current climate, Christophe Diserens, chief wealth officer at SwissBorg, pointed out that the recent nomination of Kevin as Federal Reserve chair has influenced expectations around near-term rate cuts, prompting a rapid repricing across equities, bonds, and crypto. Simultaneously, the market is experiencing extreme levels of fear, as reflected in the Fear and Greed index, driven largely by ongoing narratives of a bear market circulating on social media.
While short-term sentiment is marked by panic, the long-term outlook appears more favorable, according to Diserens, who cites continued adoption in the sector and projections from JPMorgan placing Bitcoin’s target at $266,000. This dichotomy between immediate panic and long-term optimism is contributing to the volatility observed in daily ETF flows.
Nick Motz, CEO of ORQO Group and CIO of Soil, explained that these fluctuations are not random. Institutions that entered the market late in 2025 are taking profits, while a troubling short-covering cycle unfolds simultaneously. With Bitcoin hovering around the $75,000 mark—close to mining production costs—automatic liquidations tied to hawkish Federal Reserve expectations are further amplifying outflows from certain ETFs. Nevertheless, Motz noted that much of the capital isn’t exiting cryptocurrency entirely; rather, it is being redirected towards more regulated derivatives.
“This results in a choppy, directionless market that many retail traders are struggling to understand,” Motz remarked. He described the current market conditions as a “liquidity mirage,” indicating active market transactions without a clear direction.
Looking ahead, Motz anticipates that volatility is likely to persist well into the first half of 2026. He warned that recent drops may have dulled the exuberance that characterized 2025, and the structural reflation trend many are waiting for might not be realized until later in 2026. The broader economic intricacies, including stagnation in global money supply growth and widening high-yield credit spreads, point to a tightening liquidity environment for risk assets like Bitcoin.
Investors are cautioned to be wary of deceptive rallies that may mislead buyers before further declines. “The market probably won’t find a solid floor until credit markets finally adjust their risk assessments, which could extend into summer,” Motz said. The overarching sentiment among users on the prediction market Myriad—operated by Dastan, the parent company of Decrypt—leans bearish, with a 61% likelihood suggesting Bitcoin’s next movement may push it down to $55,000 rather than up to $84,000.
Currently, Bitcoin’s price has remained stagnant, trading between $62,000 and $71,000 since early February, and as of the last 24 hours, it has dipped by 0.6% to approximately $67,365 according to CoinGecko data, leaving many market participants on edge as they await clearer signals from the market.
