The price of Bitcoin is currently navigating a precarious situation within the larger market landscape, characterized by ongoing recovery efforts and persistent macroeconomic uncertainty. The market seems to be in a transitional period, moving away from euphoric expansion but not yet fully embracing capitulation. This ongoing price action illustrates a struggle between long-term holders of the cryptocurrency and the volatility introduced by short-term speculators. However, data from on-chain metrics indicates that Bitcoin is likely to experience further declines in the near future.
Market analyst Ali Martinez recently highlighted the significance of the Cumulative Value – Days Destroyed (CVDD) as a tool for identifying Bitcoin’s price bottoms since 2012. According to Martinez, this metric is one of the most reliable long-term on-chain indicators for recognizing structural lows in the market, with its current value set at $45,225.
The CVDD metric, introduced by Bitcoin’s creator Satoshi Nakamoto in 2009, serves as a long-term valuation benchmark aimed at identifying major market bottoms by examining the behavior of long-term holders. Understanding CVDD requires familiarity with the concept of Coin Days Destroyed (CDD), which accounts for all Bitcoin that has been accumulated but remains unused. CVDD then tracks the historical value of these destroyed coin days, feeding this data into a valuation model that historically correlates with significant Bitcoin cycle lows.
Over the past decade, CVDD has proven to be a robust indicator of Bitcoin’s price bottoms. The model essentially gauges the moments when older, long-held coins are transacted, as long-term holders typically sell near market peaks and accumulate during substantial bear markets.
Interestingly, CVDD has acted as a substantial cushion for Bitcoin prices during severe market downturns. Historical analyses reveal that in past cycles—including the bear market lows of 2015, the capitulation in 2018, and the sell-off in 2022—the price of Bitcoin frequently approached or dipped below the CVDD line before entering recovery phases.
Currently, with CVDD positioned at $45,225, this level is deemed a significant deep-value zone within the existing market dynamics. While this does not automatically indicate that prices must decline to this threshold, it serves as a noteworthy structural support should the broader market conditions deteriorate further. Historically, when Bitcoin trades significantly above the CVDD level, it indicates a healthier market position; conversely, a price that compresses toward this line tends to provoke pessimistic sentiment and intensify long-term accumulation activities.
As Bitcoin continues to consolidate within its current trading range, observers are keen to see whether the price can maintain a safe distance above the $45,225 CVDD line. A decisive move closer to this threshold could signal deeper corrective pressures in the market, while stability above it might support the view that the broader cycle retains its structural integrity.
At present, Bitcoin is valued at approximately $70,000, representing a modest price increase of nearly 2% over the past day.
