Bitcoin’s recent downtrend is raising concerns among analysts about a potential economic shift, particularly in relation to the Nasdaq Index. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and manager of the Maelstrom fund, highlights the leading cryptocurrency’s divergence from the Nasdaq, which has remained relatively stable despite Bitcoin’s significant drop from its all-time high of $126,080 in October 2025.
Hayes posits that this divergence is indicative of looming job losses driven by advancements in artificial intelligence. He estimates that if 20% of knowledge workers are displaced by AI, the U.S. could face $330 billion in consumer credit losses, alongside an additional $227 billion in mortgage losses. The implications of such a scenario could lead to widespread defaults, heavily impacting the banking system and consumer confidence.
While there’s agreement among experts about the risks posed by AI to job security, opinions diverge on the timeline for these changes to manifest. Many analysts suggest that the kind of rapid disruption Hayes outlines would unfold over several quarters rather than weeks, with job reductions likely occurring through attrition and hiring freezes rather than mass layoffs.
Despite the cautious outlook from some analysts, the signals are concerning. McMillin from Merkle Tree Capital cautioned that while the idea of a looming crisis is valid, the immediate timeframe for such disruptions might be overstated. He highlighted that labor markets tend to react in a more complex fashion than Hayes’ model suggests.
Underscoring the current market dynamism, Hayes pointed to signs of a ‘credit crunch’ ahead, especially as AI tools become more capable of diminishing the need for human labor in various sectors. He draws attention to the performance of the iShares Software ETF, which has underperformed against the broader Nasdaq, suggesting that the market isn’t fully factoring in the potential disruptions from AI technologies.
The ongoing turbulence in Bitcoin, which has seen a 2.5% decline over the last 24 hours and a 27% decrease over the past month, also prompts concerns regarding its correlation with traditional assets. Hayes asserts that Bitcoin is often the first asset to react to changes in fiat credit conditions, serving as a bellwether for potential risks in the broader financial landscape.
In the context of rising gold prices amid Bitcoin’s slump, Hayes interprets this as indicative of a developing deflationary risk-off credit event. If such an event does occur, he anticipates that the Federal Reserve would likely intervene with significant monetary stimulus to support the banking system, potentially leading to stronger demand for assets with fixed supply, like Bitcoin.
Colin Goltra, CEO of Morph, cautioned that market dynamics may not always reveal clear trends, noting that Bitcoin often operates independently of traditional equities. The possibility remains that Bitcoin’s decline might represent a complete downward move, or it may face even steeper losses as equities adjust to changing economic realities.
Regardless of the immediate outlook, Hayes maintains that a substantial monetary response from the Fed could ultimately propel Bitcoin to new highs, driven by the profound impacts of AI on the economy. As the cryptocurrency market navigates these uncertainties, the intersection of technological advancements and economic pressures remains a critical focus for traders and analysts alike.
