The cattle markets faced significant challenges recently, highlighted by a major breakdown ahead of the Cattle on Feed report. This downturn appears to link closely to ongoing fears of a potential strike at the JBS Greeley plant in Colorado, despite relatively strong cash market conditions where JBS continues to actively purchase cattle for slaughter. Traders, however, seem overwhelmed by negative speculation surrounding the strike situation, with fears bubbling beneath the surface, even as negotiations are still in progress and some producers are reportedly resistant to lower packer bids.
Despite this, both producers and packers exhibit a level of confidence, as indicated by rising bids throughout the trading day. This disconnect raises eyebrows among analysts who adamantly proclaim the likelihood of a strike. The prevailing worry seems to stem from the fear that heightened prices, currently at all-time highs, might be curbed sooner than anticipated.
Interestingly, performance in the feeder cattle market diverged from the widespread concerns. The Feeder Index has noted unprecedented highs on consecutive days, even as futures faced a downturn on Friday. Currently, futures are trading at a discount to the Feeder Index, marking a stark contrast to their performance during the previous record highs in October, where the lead futures contract outperformed the index.
Strong purchasing activity from producers is also revealing emerging trends. Reports from various clients indicate that replacement heifer prices are rising, suggesting that producers are becoming increasingly aggressive in their breeding strategies. This behavior could signal a tightening of supplies in the future as heifers exit the production cycle. Moreover, there’s speculation that some producers have brought feeder cattle to market sooner than normal by pulling forward inventories, which could impact supply dynamics moving forward.
In terms of trading specifics, the April Cattle futures experienced a range fluctuation, dipping from a session high of 243.675 to a low of 241.275, ultimately settling at 242.00. Should prices manage to hold above this settlement point, there is a possibility of testing resistance at the Thursday high of 244.125. Conversely, if the downward trend continues, support levels will likely be examined at the rising 13-day moving average around 240.375 and further at 239.25.
The March Feeder Cattle also saw a decline, dropping from 371.125 to 366.575 before settling at 368.025. If the market holds, it could potentially re-test resistance at 369.375, but a further breakdown may push prices down to 365.825 and 365.675 in support.
The latest data further emphasizes the market’s volatility—with boxed beef cutouts showing slight increases and slaughter rates fluctuating. The USDA has indicated that cash trade in Nebraska was moderate, with prices ranging from 240.00 to 249.00 for live cattle and from 380.00 to 388.50 on a dressed basis.
The USDA report on Cattle on Feed revealed a 2 percent decline year-over-year, with approximately 11.5 million head on feed as of February 1, 2026—a situation compounded by lower placements and marketings compared to 2025.
As uncertainty looms over the conditions affecting both cash and futures markets, stakeholders remain vigilant, navigating through market fluctuations while keeping close tabs on emerging trends and forecasts for tighter supplies in the near future.
For those invested in livestock markets, further engagement can be found through weekly webinars, such as the upcoming session scheduled for February 24, 2026, at 3:15 PM, which promises to delve into current market conditions and trends.
