Bitcoin (BTC) has shown signs of consolidation above $65,000 for over a week, following a significant decline of 46% from its peak at $126,000 to $60,000 within the last three months. Despite the prevalent weak market sentiment, the overall selling pressure has noticeably decreased.
Analysts from VanEck, headed by Mathew Siggel—lead researcher in digital assets—have observed that the largest selling cohort has comprised individuals who held BTC for 1-2 years. These holders were the primary sellers in late 2025 and early 2026. However, this group has significantly reduced their selling activities, as many of them purchased Bitcoin at an average price of $72,000 and are currently facing financial losses.
Siggel noted, “Over the past month, selling from older cohorts, those holding for over a year, has significantly fallen, with an anticipated total of 517,000 BTC being sold in February. Within the 1-2 year holding range, token sales have dropped dramatically to a pace of just 190,000 BTC.”
Despite the easing of selling pressure, Siggel warned that investors might continue to encounter painful losses, as realized losses have already surpassed $22 billion, indicating a trend of capitulation and a decline in the conviction to hold BTC long-term.
Caution prevails within the market, and the declining prices have adversely impacted miner revenues, potentially intensifying the ongoing crisis for miners and leading to the exit of less competitive players. The Bitcoin network’s hash rate, which reflects the computational power necessary for mining BTC, has seen a 14% decline over the past 90 days. Nonetheless, VanEck analysts remarked, “Sustained 90-day hash rate drawdowns are relatively uncommon. These periods of hash rate contraction have historically preceded strong forward BTC returns over the subsequent 90 days.”
Should this pattern hold true, it could serve as temporary relief for the market. Additionally, there is growing anticipation surrounding the possible passage of the CLARITY Act, a proposed crypto market structure bill, which could further stabilize Bitcoin’s price.
However, market sentiment appears to lean heavily towards caution. According to data from Glassnode, the options flow and skew indicate a strong preference for hedging against downside risk. The demand for puts, which represent bearish bets, remains elevated compared to calls, which signify bullish bets. This suggests that investors are keen to protect themselves from potential further declines, despite the optimistic indicators associated with the potential recovery tied to the CLARITY Act.
To summarize, VanEck analysts have highlighted that the primary sellers of Bitcoin—those holding between one to two years—have significantly curtailed their selling activities, especially after Bitcoin fell below $72,000. The asset management firm has projected that Bitcoin could see a recovery in Q2, drawing on historical patterns related to hash rate contractions.
