On November 4, 2025, an unusual advertisement for Polymarket drew attention on the streets of New York City, showcasing the two candidates vying for the mayoral seat: Zohran Mamdani and former Governor Andrew Cuomo. The ad not only highlighted the upcoming election but also underscored the rising prominence of betting platforms that allow users to wager on a wide array of future events.
Polymarket is part of a growing trend within the United States, where prediction markets have seen a surge in popularity. Enthusiasts can place bets on outcomes ranging from international conflicts, such as a potential U.S. strike on Iran, to cultural events like the Super Bowl and the Oscars, as well as municipal elections in various cities. Such platforms invite a diverse range of participants, transforming events that could be seen as mundane into opportunities for financial gain.
As of late November 2025, the combined betting volume across Polymarket and its main competitor, Kalshi, soared to approximately $13 billion (€10.9 billion). The increased engagement has resulted in Polymarket reporting tens of millions of visitors and several hundred thousand active traders, indicating a robust community of individuals eager to stake their claims on the future.
Experts are closely watching this burgeoning market. Molly White, a researcher and engineer at Northeastern University, has noted a “powerful trend” in American culture where nearly every aspect of life serves as a potential target for gambling. This observation raises questions about the ethical ramifications of such widespread speculation. Nikos Smyrnaios, a social sciences professor at the University of Toulouse, highlighted the concerns associated with “risk speculation,” pointing out its inherent lack of ethical considerations.
As the landscape of prediction markets evolves, it remains to be seen how these platforms will shape public perception of uncertainty and risk in the years to come. The implications for both society and the betting community are profound as more individuals engage in the excitement of wagering on the unpredictable events that define our world.
